Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Martin Landaluce v Sho Shimabukuro

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

40%

60%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Martin Landaluce (Local)

Prediction 40.40%2.48fair odd

EV +17.17%

Edge +5.92%

Kelly +9.04%

Growth +1.55%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.03%42.22%36.42%55.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.702.322.552.9058.82%43.16%39.22%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sho Shimabukuro (Visit)

Prediction 59.60%1.68fair odd

EV +26.35%

Edge +12.43%

Kelly +23.52%

Growth +6.20%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.50%57.78%63.58%66.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.421.681.452.1270.42%59.70%68.97%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Martin Landaluce (Local): 40.40%; Sho Shimabukuro (Visit): 59.60%. For Sho Shimabukuro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.68. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +26.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
PlayUp🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -31.32%E -18.42%K -44.74%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV +26.35%E +12.43%K +23.52%G +6.20%	6.0%	2026-03-03 19:39
GTbets🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -29.30%E -16.74%K -39.06%G +0.000%	2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV +24.56%E +11.75%K +22.53%G +5.53%	5.0%	2026-03-03 19:24
Pinnacle🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.97%EV -26.47%E -14.54%K -32.28%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 47.03%EV +22.18%E +10.82%K +21.12%G +4.68%	3.7%	2026-03-03 19:51
LowVig.ag🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -27.28%E -15.15%K -34.09%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV +22.18%E +10.82%K +21.12%G +4.68%	4.3%	2026-03-03 19:40
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -27.28%E -15.15%K -34.09%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV +22.18%E +10.82%K +21.12%G +4.68%	4.3%	2026-03-03 19:41
Marathon Bet🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%EV -30.10%E -17.40%K -41.24%G +0.000%	1.97I 50.76%NM 46.76%EV +17.41%E +8.84%K +17.95%G +3.12%	8.6%	2026-03-03 19:34
Betway🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +5.05%E +1.94%K +3.15%G +0.159%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -10.60%E -7.07%K -21.21%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-03 19:55
Bet Victor🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV +5.85%E +2.23%K +3.61%G +0.212%	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -13.58%E -9.37%K -30.19%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-03 19:55
theScore Bet🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV +5.05%E +1.94%K +3.15%G +0.159%	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -13.58%E -9.37%K -30.19%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-03 19:55
Betsson🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV +3.03%E +1.19%K +1.95%G +0.059%	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -13.58%E -9.37%K -30.19%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-03-03 19:55
NordicBet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV +3.03%E +1.19%K +1.95%G +0.059%	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -13.58%E -9.37%K -30.19%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-03-03 19:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV +9.09%E +3.37%K +5.34%G +0.486%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -14.18%E -9.85%K -32.23%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-03 19:55
Coral🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV +9.09%E +3.37%K +5.34%G +0.486%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -14.18%E -9.85%K -32.23%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-03 19:55
Fliff🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV +1.01%E +0.402%K +0.671%G +0.007%	1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -14.18%E -9.85%K -32.23%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-03-03 19:55
Bovada🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV +17.17%E +5.92%K +9.04%G +1.55%	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -14.78%E -10.33%K -34.36%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-03-03 19:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV +11.11%E +4.04%K +6.35%G +0.705%	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -15.37%E -10.82%K -36.60%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-03 19:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%	3.8%	2026-03-03 19:55