Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Juan Manuel Cerundolo v Arthur Rinderknech

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 23:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

35%

65%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Juan Manuel Cerundolo (Local)

Prediction 35.24%2.84fair odd

EV +1.50%

Edge +0.520%

Kelly +0.796%

Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.79%35.12%35.64%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.602.732.702.8838.46%36.59%37.04%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arthur Rinderknech (Visit)

Prediction 64.76%1.54fair odd

EV -1.57%

Edge -1.03%

Kelly -3.01%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

63.90%64.88%64.36%66.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.441.481.481.5269.44%67.50%67.57%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Juan Manuel Cerundolo (Local): 35.24%; Arthur Rinderknech (Visit): 64.76%. For Juan Manuel Cerundolo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.84. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.50%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.88I 34.72%NM 33.79%EV +1.50%E +0.520%K +0.796%G +0.012%	1.47I 68.03%NM 66.21%EV -4.81%E -3.27%K -10.22%G +0.000%	2.7%	2026-03-07 22:55
1xBet🎯	2.82I 35.46%NM 34.42%EV -0.618%E -0.219%K -0.340%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.58%EV -4.16%E -2.81%K -8.66%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-03-07 21:59
Betway🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.09%E -1.12%K -1.76%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.75%E -4.69%K -15.34%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-07 22:44
BoyleSports🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -4.85%E -1.80%K -2.85%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -2.86%E -1.91%K -5.73%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-03-07 22:10
LowVig.ag🎯	2.69I 37.17%NM 36.10%EV -5.20%E -1.93%K -3.08%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.90%EV -1.57%E -1.03%K -3.01%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-03-07 19:14
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.69I 37.17%NM 36.10%EV -5.20%E -1.93%K -3.08%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.90%EV -1.57%E -1.03%K -3.01%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-03-07 19:15
Bet Victor🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.37%E -3.22%K -5.23%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.75%E -4.69%K -15.34%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-03-07 22:53

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%	0.8%	2026-03-07 23:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%	0.8%	2026-03-07 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%	0.8%	2026-03-07 23:05