The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Federico Agustin Gomez v Shintaro Mochizuki

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Federico Agustin Gomez (Local)

Prediction 53.04%1.89fair odd
EV +5.02%
Edge +2.54%
Kelly +5.13%
Growth +0.258%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.30%52.63%53.55%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.801.771.9859.88%55.57%56.50%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shintaro Mochizuki (Visit)

Prediction 46.96%2.13fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.661%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%47.37%46.45%51.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.972.002.1054.05%50.78%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Federico Agustin Gomez (Local): 53.04%; Shintaro Mochizuki (Visit): 46.96%. For Federico Agustin Gomez (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.89. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.98, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV +5.02%E +2.54%K +5.13%G +0.258%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -13.13%E -7.10%K -15.45%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-02 18:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV +5.02%E +2.54%K +5.13%G +0.258%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -13.13%E -7.10%K -15.45%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-02 18:09
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV +3.43%E +1.76%K +3.61%G +0.124%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -12.19%E -6.52%K -14.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-02 18:18
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV +2.37%E +1.23%K +2.55%G +0.060%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -9.37%E -4.86%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-02 18:10
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV +0.780%E +0.411%K +0.867%G +0.007%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -12.19%E -6.52%K -14.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-02 18:09
GTbets🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -1.34%E -0.721%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -8.43%E -4.32%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-02 18:06
Everygame🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -1.87%E -1.01%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -10.78%E -5.67%K -11.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-02 17:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.54%EV -3.46%E -1.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.46%EV -12.66%E -6.81%K -14.72%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-02 18:03
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.12%E -3.45%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.08%E -3.04%K -6.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-02 18:14
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.24%E -4.76%K -11.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.39%E -0.661%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-02 18:14
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -9.30%E -5.44%K -13.10%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -3.74%E -1.82%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-02 18:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -9.83%E -5.78%K -14.04%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -3.74%E -1.82%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-02 18:20
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -9.83%E -5.78%K -14.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.08%E -3.04%K -6.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-02 18:15
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -9.83%E -5.78%K -14.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.08%E -3.04%K -6.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-02 18:14
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -11.42%E -6.84%K -17.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -1.39%E -0.661%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-02 18:18
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -11.42%E -6.84%K -17.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -1.39%E -0.661%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-02 18:15
Fliff🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -11.42%E -6.84%K -17.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%EV -6.08%E -3.04%K -6.08%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-02 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.04%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.96%1.7%2026-03-02 18:20