Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.41
assuming max odds 1.83
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elias Ymer (Local): 45.29%; Chak Lam Coleman Wong (Visit): 54.71%. For Elias Ymer (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.21. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.41, corresponding to a positive expected value of +54.42%.
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.21%EV +54.42%E +15.96%K +22.58%G +12.29% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.79%EV -26.68%E -19.91%K -78.48%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-02 22:38 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +47.18%E +14.52%K +20.97%G +9.89% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -27.23%E -20.47%K -82.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-02 22:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV +1.89%E +0.841%K +1.51%G +0.029% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -14.10%E -8.98%K -24.73%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-02 22:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.90%E -2.33%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.44%E -3.77%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-02 22:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.90%E -2.33%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.63%E -5.17%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-02 22:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -7.16%E -3.49%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -1.51%E -0.841%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-02 22:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -7.16%E -3.49%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -9.72%E -5.89%K -14.96%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-02 22:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -7.16%E -3.49%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -9.72%E -5.89%K -14.96%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-02 22:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.43%E -4.71%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.51%E -0.841%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-02 22:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.80%EV -9.43%E -4.71%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%EV -7.53%E -4.46%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-02 22:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -13.50%E -7.07%K -14.84%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +0.128%E +0.070%K +0.154%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-02 22:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -13.50%E -7.07%K -14.84%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +0.128%E +0.070%K +0.154%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-02 22:45 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.