Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Daniel Merida Aguilar v Dane Sweeny

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

68%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)

Prediction 68.35%1.46fair odd

EV +16.20%

Edge +9.53%

Kelly +23.14%

Growth +3.75%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

56.14%66.46%68.28%72.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.281.441.351.7078.13%69.47%73.80%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dane Sweeny (Visit)

Prediction 31.65%3.16fair odd

EV +10.77%

Edge +3.08%

Kelly +4.31%

Growth +0.464%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.35%33.54%31.72%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.152.862.993.5046.51%35.01%33.44%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 68.35%; Dane Sweeny (Visit): 31.65%. For Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.46. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV +16.20%E +9.53%K +23.14%G +3.75%	2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -29.74%E -13.40%K -24.38%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-03-03 17:50
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV +16.20%E +9.53%K +23.14%G +3.75%	2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -29.74%E -13.40%K -24.38%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-03-03 17:50
PlayUp🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV +14.83%E +8.83%K +21.81%G +3.23%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -31.96%E -14.86%K -27.79%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-03 17:45
GTbets🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV +11.41%E +7.00%K +18.12%G +2.07%	2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -27.53%E -12.02%K -21.34%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-03 19:40
Marathon Bet🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 58.95%EV +6.63%E +4.25%K +11.84%G +0.785%	2.24I 44.64%NM 41.05%EV -29.11%E -12.99%K -23.47%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-03-03 19:34
Pinnacle🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 67.05%EV -1.57%E -1.09%K -3.58%G +0.000%	2.93I 34.13%NM 32.95%EV -7.27%E -2.48%K -3.77%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-03-03 19:51
theScore Bet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -4.31%E -3.08%K -10.77%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -9.80%E -3.44%K -5.30%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-03 19:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.04%E -5.18%K -19.56%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.89%E -0.610%K -0.900%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-03 19:55
Betway🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -7.72%E -5.72%K -22.07%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +1.27%E +0.398%K +0.579%G +0.007%	5.3%	2026-03-03 19:55
NordicBet🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 67.86%EV -7.72%E -5.72%K -22.07%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -9.80%E -3.44%K -5.30%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-03-03 19:51
Coral🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -9.09%E -6.84%K -27.55%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV +1.27%E +0.398%K +0.579%G +0.007%	6.4%	2026-03-03 19:55
Bovada🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -9.78%E -7.41%K -30.55%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +10.77%E +3.08%K +4.31%G +0.464%	4.3%	2026-03-03 19:54
Betsson🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 69.79%EV -9.78%E -7.41%K -30.55%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -3.47%E -1.14%K -1.69%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-03-03 19:55
Fliff🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 70.29%EV -10.46%E -7.98%K -33.74%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -1.89%E -0.610%K -0.900%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-03-03 19:55
Bet Victor🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -11.14%E -8.57%K -37.14%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV +7.60%E +2.24%K +3.17%G +0.241%	6.3%	2026-03-03 19:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -12.51%E -9.77%K -44.68%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV +7.60%E +2.24%K +3.17%G +0.241%	7.5%	2026-03-03 19:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.