Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Colton Smith v Sho Shimabukuro

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

40%

60%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Colton Smith (Local)

Prediction 39.82%2.51fair odd

EV +19.47%

Edge +6.49%

Kelly +9.73%

Growth +1.89%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.19%40.47%37.50%52.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.812.332.423.0055.25%42.84%41.24%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sho Shimabukuro (Visit)

Prediction 60.18%1.66fair odd

EV +22.76%

Edge +11.16%

Kelly +21.89%

Growth +4.98%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.01%59.53%62.50%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.361.651.522.0473.53%60.58%65.57%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Colton Smith (Local): 39.82%; Sho Shimabukuro (Visit): 60.18%. For Sho Shimabukuro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.66. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.76%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -27.92%E -15.43%K -34.47%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV +22.76%E +11.16%K +21.89%G +4.98%	4.3%	2026-03-02 18:09
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -27.92%E -15.43%K -34.47%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV +22.76%E +11.16%K +21.89%G +4.98%	4.3%	2026-03-02 18:09
Pinnacle🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -26.33%E -14.23%K -30.98%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV +20.36%E +10.18%K +20.36%G +4.14%	4.1%	2026-03-02 18:10
Everygame🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -27.13%E -14.82%K -32.68%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV +17.35%E +8.90%K +18.26%G +3.17%	5.9%	2026-03-02 17:59
PlayUp🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -27.52%E -15.12%K -33.57%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV +17.35%E +8.90%K +18.26%G +3.17%	6.2%	2026-03-02 18:09
GTbets🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -25.13%E -13.37%K -28.56%G +0.000%	1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV +16.14%E +8.36%K +17.36%G +2.80%	5.0%	2026-03-02 18:07
Bovada🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.43%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.32%E -2.71%K -7.32%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-02 18:18
Betway🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.43%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.72%E -4.34%K -12.23%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-02 18:19
theScore Bet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -0.445%E -0.178%K -0.297%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -9.73%E -6.49%K -19.47%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-02 18:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV +3.54%E +1.36%K +2.21%G +0.078%	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -10.94%E -7.39%K -22.78%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-02 18:19
NordicBet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -0.445%E -0.178%K -0.297%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -12.74%E -8.79%K -28.31%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-03-02 18:19
Fliff🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -2.44%E -0.994%K -1.68%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 62.82%EV -12.74%E -8.79%K -28.31%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-03-02 18:20
Betsson🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV +7.52%E +2.78%K +4.42%G +0.333%	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -15.75%E -11.25%K -39.38%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-03-02 18:20
Bet Victor🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +19.47%E +6.49%K +9.73%G +1.89%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -18.16%E -13.35%K -50.44%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-02 18:18
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV +15.48%E +5.34%K +8.15%G +1.26%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -18.16%E -13.35%K -50.44%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-03-02 18:20
Coral🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV +15.48%E +5.34%K +8.15%G +1.26%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -18.16%E -13.35%K -50.44%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-03-02 18:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%	1.52I 65.79%NM 61.42%	7.1%	2026-03-02 18:20