Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Christopher O'Connell v Billy Harris

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Christopher O'Connell (Local)

Prediction 93.81%1.07fair odd
EV +32.27%
Edge +22.88%
Kelly +78.70%
Growth +25.39%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.88%90.46%93.75%99.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.051.011.41100.00%95.57%99.01%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Billy Harris (Visit)

Prediction 6.19%16.14fair odd
EV +680.46%
Edge +5.40%
Kelly +5.44%
Growth +37.04%

assuming max odds 126.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
0.79%9.54%6.25%32.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.9826.0815.00126.0033.56%3.83%6.67%0.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Christopher O'Connell (Local): 93.81%; Billy Harris (Visit): 6.19%. For Billy Harris (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 16.14. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 126.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +680.46%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 99.21%EV -6.19%E -6.19%K +0.000%G +0.000%126.00I 0.79%NM 0.79%EV +680.46%E +5.40%K +5.44%G +37.04%0.8%2026-03-02 19:37
Bovada🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 96.67%EV -6.19%E -6.19%K +0.000%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.33%EV +79.63%E +2.75%K +2.84%G +2.26%3.4%2026-03-02 19:29
theScore Bet🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -6.19%E -6.19%K +0.000%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +61.05%E +2.35%K +2.44%G +1.49%3.8%2026-03-02 19:20
Pinnacle🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 95.91%EV -2.44%E -2.35%K -61.05%G +0.000%24.37I 4.10%NM 4.09%EV +50.95%E +2.09%K +2.18%G +1.11%0.3%2026-03-02 19:20
Betway🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 95.00%EV -6.19%E -6.19%K +0.000%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV +17.69%E +0.931%K +0.983%G +0.174%5.3%2026-03-02 19:24
Bet Victor🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 93.75%EV -6.19%E -6.19%K +0.000%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV -7.09%E -0.473%K -0.506%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-02 19:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.15%EV -3.38%E -3.28%K -112.67%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.85%EV -13.28%E -0.949%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-02 19:19
Betsson🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.23%EV -5.26%E -5.20%K -525.61%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -34.96%E -3.33%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-02 19:29
Fliff🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.87%EV -5.26%E -5.20%K -525.61%G +0.000%10.05I 9.95%NM 9.13%EV -37.75%E -3.76%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-02 19:19
NordicBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.83%EV -5.26%E -5.20%K -525.61%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -38.06%E -3.81%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-02 19:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV +32.27%E +22.88%K +78.70%G +25.39%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -81.54%E -27.36%K -41.18%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-02 18:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.00I 100.00%NM 98.59%69.93I 1.43%NM 1.41%1.4%2026-03-02 19:29