Language:English
Brandon Nakashima v Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Brandon Nakashima (Local)
Prediction 80.90%1.24fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -10.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.57%80.96%80.86%82.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.171.171.2189.29%85.71%85.47%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Visit)
Prediction 19.10%5.24fair odd
EV +7.71%
Edge +1.37%
Kelly +1.66%
Growth +0.128%
assuming max odds 5.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.06%19.04%19.14%21.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.934.905.6422.73%20.27%20.41%17.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brandon Nakashima (Local): 80.90%; Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Visit): 19.10%. For Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.24. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.64, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.71%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.94%EV -6.15%E -5.30%K -38.45%G +0.000% | 5.64I 17.73%NM 17.06%EV +7.71%E +1.37%K +1.66%G +0.128% | 3.9% | 2026-03-06 22:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.94%EV -6.15%E -5.30%K -38.45%G +0.000% | 5.64I 17.73%NM 17.06%EV +7.71%E +1.37%K +1.66%G +0.128% | 3.9% | 2026-03-06 22:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -6.15%E -5.30%K -38.45%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +5.03%E +0.915%K +1.12%G +0.056% | 4.4% | 2026-03-06 23:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.96%E -6.05%K -46.41%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +5.03%E +0.915%K +1.12%G +0.056% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 23:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -6.96%E -6.05%K -46.41%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV +3.12%E +0.578%K +0.710%G +0.022% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 23:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -5.34%E -4.57%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV +0.258%E +0.049%K +0.061%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-06 23:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -5.34%E -4.57%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -0.697%E -0.134%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 23:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -5.34%E -4.57%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -0.697%E -0.134%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 23:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -5.34%E -4.57%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -0.697%E -0.134%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 23:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -6.15%E -5.30%K -38.45%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -0.697%E -0.134%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 23:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -6.15%E -5.30%K -38.45%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -0.697%E -0.134%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 23:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -6.96%E -6.05%K -46.41%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -0.697%E -0.134%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 23:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.15%EV -8.58%E -7.59%K -66.00%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -0.697%E -0.134%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 23:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.55%EV -5.34%E -4.57%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 5.17I 19.34%NM 18.45%EV -1.27%E -0.246%K -0.304%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-06 23:03 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.14%EV -9.39%E -8.38%K -78.24%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 17.86%EV -1.65%E -0.321%K -0.398%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-06 23:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.01%EV -2.92%E -2.43%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 5.12I 19.53%NM 18.99%EV -2.22%E -0.434%K -0.540%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-06 22:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.34%E -4.57%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -2.61%E -0.511%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 22:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.34%E -4.57%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -2.61%E -0.511%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 23:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.34%E -4.57%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -2.61%E -0.511%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 23:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.60%EV -6.96%E -6.05%K -46.41%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -2.61%E -0.511%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-06 23:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.73%EV -7.77%E -6.82%K -55.50%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -2.61%E -0.511%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-06 23:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.06%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.94%EV -3.56%E -0.705%K -0.879%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-06 22:53 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.52%E -0.903%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 23:03 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.34%E -4.57%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.52%E -0.903%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 22:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.15%E -5.30%K -38.45%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -4.52%E -0.903%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 23:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.96%E -6.05%K -46.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -4.52%E -0.903%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 23:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.96%E -6.05%K -46.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -4.52%E -0.903%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 23:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.96%E -6.05%K -46.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -4.52%E -0.903%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 23:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.77%E -6.82%K -55.50%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -4.52%E -0.903%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 23:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.77%E -6.82%K -55.50%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -4.52%E -0.903%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 23:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -6.43%E -1.31%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -6.43%E -1.31%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 22:43 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -6.15%E -5.30%K -38.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -6.43%E -1.31%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-06 23:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -6.15%E -5.30%K -38.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -6.43%E -1.31%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-06 23:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -6.15%E -5.30%K -38.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -6.43%E -1.31%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-06 23:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -6.15%E -5.30%K -38.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -6.43%E -1.31%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-06 22:43 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -6.96%E -6.05%K -46.41%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -6.43%E -1.31%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-06 23:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.26%EV -8.58%E -7.59%K -66.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -6.43%E -1.31%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-06 23:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -8.34%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 22:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -5.34%E -4.57%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -8.34%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-06 23:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -5.34%E -4.57%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -8.34%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-06 23:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -5.34%E -4.57%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -8.34%E -1.74%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-06 23:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -3.73%E -3.13%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -9.29%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 22:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -9.29%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 22:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -9.29%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 22:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -5.34%E -4.57%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -9.29%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-06 22:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -6.96%E -6.05%K -46.41%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -9.29%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-06 23:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.65%EV -7.77%E -6.82%K -55.50%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -9.29%E -1.96%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-06 23:03 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -10.25%E -2.18%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-06 22:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.59%EV -2.92%E -2.43%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 4.68I 21.37%NM 20.41%EV -10.63%E -2.27%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 22:53 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.17%EV -6.96%E -6.05%K -46.41%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.83%EV -11.20%E -2.41%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-06 22:58 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -12.15%E -2.64%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -2.11%E -1.74%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -14.06%E -3.13%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 22:44 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -2.11%E -1.74%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -14.06%E -3.13%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 22:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.92%E -2.43%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -14.06%E -3.13%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 22:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -14.06%E -3.13%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 23:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.34%E -4.57%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -14.06%E -3.13%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 23:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -2.92%E -2.43%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -15.97%E -3.63%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-06 22:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -15.97%E -3.63%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-06 22:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -15.97%E -3.63%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-06 22:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -4.53%E -3.84%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -15.97%E -3.63%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-06 23:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 82.23% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77% | 0.5% | 2026-03-06 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.35% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65% | 1.2% | 2026-03-06 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.35% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65% | 1.2% | 2026-03-06 23:04 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.47% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.53% | 1.9% | 2026-03-06 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.95% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.05% | 2.9% | 2026-03-06 23:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.13% | 5.52I 18.12%NM 16.87% | 7.4% | 2026-03-06 23:00 |