Language:English
Benjamin Bonzi v Shintaro Mochizuki
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Benjamin Bonzi (Local)
assuming max odds 1.43
Shintaro Mochizuki (Visit)
assuming max odds 4.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Benjamin Bonzi (Local): 72.69%; Shintaro Mochizuki (Visit): 27.31%. For Shintaro Mochizuki (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.24%.
Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.50%EV +3.95%E +2.76%K +9.18%G +0.362% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.50%EV -18.89%E -6.36%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-03 19:51 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -1.87%E -1.38%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -11.24%E -3.46%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-03 19:54 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.59%EV -4.78%E -3.65%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.41%EV -5.24%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-03 19:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -4.78%E -3.65%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -11.24%E -3.46%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-03 19:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-03 19:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.78%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-03 19:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -13.98%E -4.44%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-03 19:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -5.50%E -4.23%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -13.98%E -4.44%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-03 19:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.56%EV -6.23%E -4.83%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.44%EV +3.23%E +0.854%K +1.16%G +0.038% | 4.0% | 2026-03-03 19:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.56%EV -6.23%E -4.83%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.44%EV +3.23%E +0.854%K +1.16%G +0.038% | 4.0% | 2026-03-03 19:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -6.96%E -5.43%K -24.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-03 19:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -7.68%E -6.05%K -28.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -1.69%E -0.468%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-03 19:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -9.14%E -7.31%K -36.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +3.78%E +0.994%K +1.35%G +0.051% | 6.3% | 2026-03-03 19:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.53%EV -10.59%E -8.61%K -46.05%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -1.69%E -0.468%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-03 19:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -11.32%E -9.28%K -51.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +9.24%E +2.31%K +3.08%G +0.284% | 7.0% | 2026-03-03 19:55 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.66% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.34% | 3.3% | 2026-03-03 19:55 |