The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Alexis Galarneau v Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexis Galarneau (Local)

Prediction 53.04%1.89fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.57%53.07%53.05%53.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.781.791.8558.82%56.20%55.87%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit)

Prediction 46.96%2.13fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.37%46.93%46.95%48.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.951.992.002.0751.28%50.27%50.00%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexis Galarneau (Local): 53.04%; Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit): 46.96%. For Alexis Galarneau (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.89. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.85, with an expected value of -1.87%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -1.87%E -1.01%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -7.50%E -3.81%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-03 23:10
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.93%E -1.60%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.09%E -3.04%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-03 23:10
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%EV -3.99%E -2.20%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77%EV -3.27%E -1.59%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-03 20:40
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.52%E -2.51%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.09%E -3.04%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-03 18:21
Everygame🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.52%E -2.51%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.09%E -3.04%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-03 18:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.52%E -2.51%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.44%E -4.33%K -8.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-03 18:26
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.52%E -2.51%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.44%E -4.33%K -8.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-03 18:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -5.05%E -2.82%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -2.80%E -1.35%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-03 22:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -5.05%E -2.82%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -2.80%E -1.35%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-03 22:39
PlayUp🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.58%E -3.14%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.09%E -3.04%K -6.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-03 22:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.11%E -3.45%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.09%E -3.04%K -6.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-03 23:35
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.11%E -3.45%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.09%E -3.04%K -6.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-03 23:35
Fliff🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -6.11%E -3.45%K -7.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.58%EV -8.44%E -4.33%K -8.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-03 23:35
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.17%E -4.10%K -9.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.44%E -4.33%K -8.88%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-03 22:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -7.70%E -4.43%K -10.41%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -8.44%E -4.33%K -8.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-03 23:35
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -9.83%E -5.78%K -14.04%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -8.44%E -4.33%K -8.88%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-03 23:45
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -9.83%E -5.78%K -14.04%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -8.44%E -4.33%K -8.88%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-03 23:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.81I 55.25%NM 53.71%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.29%2.9%2026-03-03 23:45