Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Blockx v Martin Landaluce

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 18:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

56%

44%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Blockx (Local)

Prediction 55.99%1.79fair odd

EV +11.99%

Edge +5.99%

Kelly +11.99%

Growth +1.44%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.38%56.74%54.07%65.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.421.681.742.0070.42%59.42%57.47%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Martin Landaluce (Visit)

Prediction 44.01%2.27fair odd

EV +22.78%

Edge +8.16%

Kelly +12.72%

Growth +2.90%

assuming max odds 2.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.04%43.26%45.93%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.732.232.002.7957.80%44.83%50.00%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexander Blockx (Local): 55.99%; Martin Landaluce (Visit): 44.01%. For Martin Landaluce (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.79, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.96%EV -19.37%E -13.45%K -44.02%G +0.000%	2.79I 35.84%NM 34.04%EV +22.78%E +8.16%K +12.72%G +2.90%	5.3%	2026-03-02 18:05
Pinnacle🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -17.13%E -11.57%K -35.68%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV +21.02%E +7.64%K +12.01%G +2.52%	3.9%	2026-03-02 18:10
LowVig.ag🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -17.69%E -12.03%K -37.63%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV +21.02%E +7.64%K +12.01%G +2.52%	4.4%	2026-03-02 18:09
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -17.69%E -12.03%K -37.63%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV +21.02%E +7.64%K +12.01%G +2.52%	4.4%	2026-03-02 18:09
Everygame🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -18.81%E -12.97%K -41.80%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV +18.82%E +6.97%K +11.07%G +2.08%	6.0%	2026-03-02 17:59
Marathon Bet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.76%EV -20.49%E -14.43%K -48.78%G +0.000%	2.61I 38.31%NM 35.24%EV +14.85%E +5.69%K +9.23%G +1.37%	8.7%	2026-03-02 18:03
PlayUp🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -16.01%E -10.67%K -32.02%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV +12.21%E +4.79%K +7.88%G +0.963%	5.9%	2026-03-02 18:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -2.57%E -1.48%K -3.47%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -9.79%E -4.77%K -9.32%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-02 18:14
Betsson🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.81%E -2.83%K -6.87%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -11.99%E -5.99%K -11.99%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-03-02 18:15
Bovada🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +6.95%E +3.64%K +7.64%G +0.531%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -15.95%E -8.35%K -17.53%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-02 18:14
Bet Victor🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +2.47%E +1.35%K +2.98%G +0.073%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -15.95%E -8.35%K -17.53%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-02 18:14
theScore Bet🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +2.47%E +1.35%K +2.98%G +0.073%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -15.95%E -8.35%K -17.53%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-02 18:14
Fliff🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 51.90%EV -0.890%E -0.503%K -1.16%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.10%EV -15.95%E -8.35%K -17.53%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-03-02 18:14
NordicBet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV +0.790%E +0.439%K +0.987%G +0.008%	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -16.39%E -8.63%K -18.21%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-03-02 18:14
Betway🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV +9.19%E +4.71%K +9.67%G +0.889%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -18.59%E -10.05%K -21.87%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-02 18:14
Coral🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV +3.59%E +1.94%K +4.22%G +0.152%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -18.59%E -10.05%K -21.87%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-03-02 18:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV +11.99%E +5.99%K +11.99%G +1.44%	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -23.87%E -13.80%K -32.70%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-02 18:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.96I 51.02%NM 49.48%	1.92I 52.08%NM 50.52%	3.1%	2026-03-02 18:15