Language:English
Aleksandar Kovacevic v Corentin Moutet
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local)
Prediction 43.61%2.29fair odd
EV +3.79%
Edge +1.59%
Kelly +2.75%
Growth +0.104%
assuming max odds 2.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.75%43.66%43.52%47.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.182.192.3850.51%45.90%45.66%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Corentin Moutet (Visit)
Prediction 56.39%1.77fair odd
EV +1.50%
Edge +0.835%
Kelly +1.88%
Growth +0.028%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%56.34%56.48%60.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.661.651.8063.69%60.29%60.42%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local): 43.61%; Corentin Moutet (Visit): 56.39%. For Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.79%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV +3.79%E +1.59%K +2.75%G +0.104% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -11.47%E -7.30%K -20.12%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 19:08 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV +2.92%E +1.24%K +2.15%G +0.063% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -7.52%E -4.59%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-07 19:12 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV +2.92%E +1.24%K +2.15%G +0.063% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -7.52%E -4.59%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-07 19:12 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%EV +1.61%E +0.691%K +1.21%G +0.020% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%EV -5.83%E -3.49%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-03-07 19:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -0.133%E -0.058%K -0.103%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -8.08%E -4.96%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-07 19:07 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -1.44%E -0.638%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -7.52%E -4.59%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-07 19:08 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.88%E -0.835%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.96%E -4.22%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-07 19:12 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.88%E -0.835%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.96%E -4.22%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-07 19:12 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -1.88%E -0.835%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -8.08%E -4.96%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-07 19:12 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -1.88%E -0.835%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -8.08%E -4.96%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-07 19:08 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -1.88%E -0.835%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.65%E -5.34%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -1.88%E -0.835%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.65%E -5.34%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 19:13 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -2.75%E -1.23%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -7.52%E -4.59%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -3.62%E -1.64%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -5.83%E -3.49%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.06%E -1.84%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.14%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-07 19:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.06%E -1.84%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.06%E -1.84%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 19:13 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.06%E -1.84%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.70%E -2.78%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.06%E -1.84%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.96%E -4.22%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-07 19:01 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -4.06%E -1.84%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -8.08%E -4.96%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -4.06%E -1.84%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -8.08%E -4.96%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.06%E -1.84%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.65%E -5.34%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-07 19:07 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.06%E -1.84%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.65%E -5.34%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-07 19:07 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.06%E -1.84%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -9.21%E -5.72%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.06%E -1.84%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -9.21%E -5.72%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.06%E -1.84%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -9.21%E -5.72%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.06%E -1.84%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -9.21%E -5.72%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -4.06%E -1.84%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -9.78%E -6.11%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.93%E -2.26%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.14%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 19:07 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.93%E -2.26%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.93%E -2.26%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.93%E -2.26%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.93%E -2.26%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.93%E -2.26%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.93%E -2.26%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.93%E -2.26%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.93%E -2.26%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.65%E -5.34%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 19:12 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.51%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.49%EV -10.34%E -6.50%K -17.52%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -6.67%E -3.12%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -6.39%E -3.85%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -7.55%E -3.56%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%EV -7.52%E -4.59%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.42%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.42%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-07 19:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.42%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.14%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.42%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.14%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-07 19:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.42%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.14%E -2.43%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-07 19:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.42%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.83%E -3.49%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -8.42%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.30%EV -8.08%E -4.96%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -8.42%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -8.65%E -5.34%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -10.60%E -5.17%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -1.32%E -0.753%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -10.60%E -5.17%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -3.57%E -2.09%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -10.60%E -5.17%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-07 19:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 44.69%EV -11.47%E -5.65%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.31%EV -7.52%E -4.59%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-07 19:12 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -12.78%E -6.39%K -12.78%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV +1.50%E +0.835%K +1.88%G +0.028% | 5.6% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.90%EV -13.65%E -6.90%K -13.93%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84% | 0.5% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.73% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.27% | 1.2% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.73% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.27% | 1.2% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42% | 2.0% | 2026-03-07 19:14 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.29% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.71% | 3.1% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Novig◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33% | 5.0% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |