The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ignacio Buse v Hugo Gaston

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ignacio Buse (Local)

Prediction 81.01%1.23fair odd
EV +5.31%
Edge +4.08%
Kelly +17.70%
Growth +0.940%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.47%80.18%80.89%84.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.171.141.3089.29%85.34%87.72%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hugo Gaston (Visit)

Prediction 18.99%5.27fair odd
EV +13.95%
Edge +2.33%
Kelly +2.79%
Growth +0.389%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.73%19.82%19.11%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.804.856.0027.78%20.85%20.62%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ignacio Buse (Local): 81.01%; Hugo Gaston (Visit): 18.99%. For Hugo Gaston (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.27. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV +5.31%E +4.08%K +17.70%G +0.940%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -31.63%E -8.79%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-17 10:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV +5.31%E +4.08%K +17.70%G +0.940%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -31.63%E -8.79%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-17 10:09
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.61%EV +4.50%E +3.49%K +15.52%G +0.698%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.39%EV -28.02%E -7.39%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-17 10:15
Bet Victor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -4.41%E -3.74%K -24.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -14.53%E -3.23%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 10:14
FanDuel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -5.22%E -4.46%K -30.71%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -10.74%E -2.28%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 10:15
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.22%E -4.46%K -30.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -14.53%E -3.23%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 10:15
Coral🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.84%E -5.95%K -45.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -5.04%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 10:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -6.84%E -5.95%K -45.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -5.04%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 10:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -7.65%E -6.71%K -54.65%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +9.21%E +1.60%K +1.94%G +0.178%5.1%2026-05-17 10:15
theScore Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -7.65%E -6.71%K -54.65%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -1.24%E -0.238%K -0.295%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 10:15
NordicBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.97%EV -7.65%E -6.71%K -54.65%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.03%EV -7.89%E -1.63%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 10:15
Betsson🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.97%EV -7.65%E -6.71%K -54.65%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.03%EV -7.89%E -1.63%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 10:15
BoyleSports🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.81%EV -7.65%E -6.71%K -54.65%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV -8.84%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 10:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +4.46%E +0.811%K +0.991%G +0.044%6.7%2026-05-17 10:15
TAB🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -5.04%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 10:15
Fliff🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.26%EV -8.46%E -7.49%K -65.09%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -6.94%E -1.42%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 10:15
Betway🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -9.27%E -8.28%K -77.26%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +13.95%E +2.33%K +2.79%G +0.389%6.0%2026-05-17 10:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%1.6%2026-05-17 10:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%4.4%2026-05-17 10:15
Novig◎1.14I 87.72%NM 83.36%5.71I 17.51%NM 16.64%5.2%2026-05-17 10:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 76.78%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%7.6%2026-05-17 10:15