Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vitaliy Sachko v Jack Pinnington Jones

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

58%

42%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vitaliy Sachko (Local)

Prediction 58.41%1.71fair odd

EV +5.72%

Edge +3.16%

Kelly +7.06%

Growth +0.404%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.66%58.47%58.10%64.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.441.581.491.8169.44%63.44%67.11%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jack Pinnington Jones (Visit)

Prediction 41.59%2.40fair odd

EV +8.97%

Edge +3.42%

Kelly +5.54%

Growth +0.497%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.47%41.53%41.90%47.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.982.332.402.6250.51%42.87%41.67%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vitaliy Sachko (Local): 58.41%; Jack Pinnington Jones (Visit): 41.59%. For Jack Pinnington Jones (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.40. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.62, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.97%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BoyleSports🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -15.89%E -11.04%K -36.12%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV +8.97%E +3.42%K +5.54%G +0.497%	7.6%	2026-05-18 16:45
theScore Bet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -15.31%E -10.56%K -34.02%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV +8.14%E +3.13%K +5.09%G +0.414%	7.4%	2026-05-18 16:46
NordicBet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -15.31%E -10.56%K -34.02%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV +6.06%E +2.38%K +3.91%G +0.237%	8.2%	2026-05-18 16:45
Betsson🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -12.39%E -8.26%K -24.78%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -0.180%E -0.075%K -0.128%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-18 16:45
Fliff🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -13.56%E -9.16%K -28.24%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -0.180%E -0.075%K -0.128%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-05-18 16:46
Pinnacle🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%EV +5.72%E +3.16%K +7.06%G +0.404%	2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77%EV -14.32%E -6.95%K -13.51%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-05-18 16:21
Betway🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -0.706%E -0.415%K -1.01%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -14.74%E -7.19%K -14.03%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-18 16:44
Marathon Bet🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV +3.97%E +2.23%K +5.09%G +0.202%	1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -17.65%E -8.91%K -18.01%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-18 16:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%	2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%	3.0%	2026-05-18 16:38