Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Robin Bertrand v Daniil Glinka

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 12:52 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

30%

70%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Robin Bertrand (Local)

Prediction 29.97%3.34fair odd

EV +1.91%

Edge +0.563%

Kelly +0.798%

Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.51%29.72%30.40%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.903.123.163.4034.48%32.04%31.70%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Daniil Glinka (Visit)

Prediction 70.03%1.43fair odd

EV -3.37%

Edge -2.44%

Kelly -8.86%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

68.81%70.28%69.60%72.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.271.321.311.3878.74%75.97%76.34%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Robin Bertrand (Local): 29.97%; Daniil Glinka (Visit): 70.03%. For Robin Bertrand (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.34. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.91%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV +1.91%E +0.563%K +0.798%G +0.015%	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -9.67%E -7.49%K -33.34%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-18 12:50
NordicBet🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -4.08%E -1.28%K -1.85%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 71.59%EV -11.07%E -8.71%K -40.99%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-05-18 12:50
Betsson🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -4.08%E -1.28%K -1.85%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 71.59%EV -11.07%E -8.71%K -40.99%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-05-18 12:50
Pinnacle🎯	3.16I 31.65%NM 30.40%EV -5.28%E -1.67%K -2.44%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.60%EV -3.37%E -2.44%K -8.86%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-05-18 12:50
GTbets🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.37%EV -5.58%E -1.77%K -2.60%G +0.000%	1.31I 76.34%NM 70.63%EV -8.27%E -6.31%K -26.67%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-18 12:04
Betway🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.08%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.77%E -3.50%K -13.24%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-18 12:05
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.96I 33.78%NM 31.16%EV -11.27%E -3.81%K -5.75%G +0.000%	1.34I 74.63%NM 68.84%EV -6.17%E -4.60%K -18.14%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-05-18 12:05
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -13.07%E -4.51%K -6.88%G +0.000%	1.31I 76.34%NM 68.88%EV -8.27%E -6.31%K -26.67%G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-05-18 12:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	3.45I 28.99%NM 28.27%	1.36I 73.53%NM 71.73%	2.5%	2026-05-18 12:48