Language:English
Roberto Bautista Agut v Brandon Nakashima
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Roberto Bautista Agut (Local)
Prediction 24.05%4.16fair odd
EV +20.23%
Edge +4.05%
Kelly +5.06%
Growth +1.02%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.57%24.01%24.11%30.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.173.893.775.0031.55%25.68%26.49%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Brandon Nakashima (Visit)
Prediction 75.95%1.32fair odd
EV +4.06%
Edge +2.96%
Kelly +10.97%
Growth +0.445%
assuming max odds 1.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.82%75.99%75.89%81.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.251.251.3787.72%80.02%79.68%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Roberto Bautista Agut (Local): 24.05%; Brandon Nakashima (Visit): 75.95%. For Roberto Bautista Agut (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.16. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.23%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +20.23%E +4.05%K +5.06%G +1.02% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -13.41%E -11.76%K -95.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +15.42%E +3.21%K +4.06%G +0.625% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -8.85%E -7.38%K -44.27%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV +15.42%E +3.21%K +4.06%G +0.625% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -11.13%E -9.52%K -65.49%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV +13.01%E +2.77%K +3.52%G +0.458% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -8.85%E -7.38%K -44.27%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV +11.81%E +2.54%K +3.24%G +0.382% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -9.61%E -8.08%K -50.60%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV +10.61%E +2.31%K +2.95%G +0.313% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -10.37%E -8.79%K -57.63%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +8.20%E +1.82%K +2.34%G +0.192% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -10.37%E -8.79%K -57.63%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +8.20%E +1.82%K +2.34%G +0.192% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -11.13%E -9.52%K -65.49%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.68%EV +7.00%E +1.57%K +2.03%G +0.142% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.32%EV -11.89%E -10.25%K -74.33%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV +5.80%E +1.32%K +1.71%G +0.099% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -8.09%E -6.69%K -38.55%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +4.12%E +0.950%K +1.24%G +0.051% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -8.85%E -7.38%K -44.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV +3.39%E +0.789%K +1.03%G +0.035% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -7.34%E -6.01%K -33.34%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV +3.39%E +0.789%K +1.03%G +0.035% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -7.34%E -6.01%K -33.34%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV +3.39%E +0.789%K +1.03%G +0.035% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -7.34%E -6.01%K -33.34%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV +0.990%E +0.236%K +0.309%G +0.003% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -8.85%E -7.38%K -44.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV +0.990%E +0.236%K +0.309%G +0.003% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.50%EV -12.65%E -11.00%K -84.35%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV +0.990%E +0.236%K +0.309%G +0.003% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 78.65%EV -13.41%E -11.76%K -95.80%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -1.42%E -0.345%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -8.09%E -6.69%K -38.55%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -1.42%E -0.345%K -0.456%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -8.09%E -6.69%K -38.55%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -3.82%E -0.955%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.34%E -6.01%K -33.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -3.82%E -0.955%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.34%E -6.01%K -33.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -3.82%E -0.955%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.34%E -6.01%K -33.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -3.82%E -0.955%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.34%E -6.01%K -33.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -3.82%E -0.955%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.07%EV -9.61%E -8.08%K -50.60%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.08%EV -6.22%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.92%EV -11.13%E -9.52%K -65.49%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV -8.15%E -2.13%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -3.54%E -2.79%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-25 11:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -8.63%E -2.27%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -3.54%E -2.79%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -8.63%E -2.27%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -3.54%E -2.79%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -8.63%E -2.27%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -3.54%E -2.79%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.63%E -2.27%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.06%E -4.05%K -20.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -9.83%E -2.62%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.54%E -2.79%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.83%E -2.62%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.06%E -4.05%K -20.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.83%E -2.62%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.06%E -4.05%K -20.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-25 11:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -9.83%E -2.62%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -5.82%E -4.69%K -24.23%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.94%EV -10.07%E -2.69%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.06%EV -0.499%E -0.381%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-25 11:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.70%EV -10.31%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.30%EV -2.02%E -1.56%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-25 11:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.70%EV -10.31%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.30%EV -2.02%E -1.56%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-25 11:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -11.03%E -2.98%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -4.30%E -3.41%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -11.03%E -2.98%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -4.30%E -3.41%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -12.24%E -3.35%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.64%EV -5.82%E -4.69%K -24.23%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -13.44%E -3.73%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV +0.260%E +0.197%K +0.814%G +0.002% | 3.5% | 2026-05-25 10:56 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -13.44%E -3.73%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -0.499%E -0.381%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-25 11:18 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -14.64%E -4.12%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -1.26%E -0.968%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 11:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -14.64%E -4.12%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -2.78%E -2.17%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-25 11:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -14.64%E -4.12%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -2.78%E -2.17%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-25 11:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -15.84%E -4.53%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -0.499%E -0.381%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-25 10:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -15.84%E -4.53%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -0.499%E -0.381%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-25 11:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -15.84%E -4.53%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -1.26%E -0.968%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 11:18 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -15.84%E -4.53%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -1.26%E -0.968%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 10:58 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -15.84%E -4.53%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -1.26%E -0.968%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 11:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -17.04%E -4.94%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV +0.260%E +0.197%K +0.814%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-05-25 10:56 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -17.04%E -4.94%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV +0.260%E +0.197%K +0.814%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-05-25 10:56 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -17.04%E -4.94%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV +0.260%E +0.197%K +0.814%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-05-25 10:56 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -17.04%E -4.94%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -0.499%E -0.381%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-25 11:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.58%EV -17.28%E -5.02%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.42%EV -0.499%E -0.381%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-25 11:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -18.25%E -5.37%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -2.02%E -1.56%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-25 11:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -19.45%E -5.81%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV +0.260%E +0.197%K +0.814%G +0.002% | 5.6% | 2026-05-25 11:08 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -19.45%E -5.81%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV +0.260%E +0.197%K +0.814%G +0.002% | 5.6% | 2026-05-25 11:08 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.60%EV -22.57%E -7.01%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.40%EV -2.02%E -1.56%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-25 11:18 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.18%EV -23.78%E -7.50%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.82%EV +4.06%E +2.96%K +10.97%G +0.445% | 4.5% | 2026-05-25 11:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.15% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.85% | 0.1% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97% | 0.8% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.05% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.95% | 2.9% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Novig◎ | 5.24I 19.08%NM 18.25% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.75% | 4.6% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10% | 5.7% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92% | 8.3% | 2026-05-25 11:20 |