Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pedro Boscardin Dias v Alexis Galarneau

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

57%

43%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pedro Boscardin Dias (Local)

Prediction 56.92%1.76fair odd

EV -3.24%

Edge -1.91%

Kelly -4.63%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.67%56.60%57.25%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.601.661.671.7062.50%60.42%59.88%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alexis Galarneau (Visit)

Prediction 43.08%2.32fair odd

EV -3.06%

Edge -1.36%

Kelly -2.45%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.41%43.40%42.75%45.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.052.142.152.2548.78%46.67%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pedro Boscardin Dias (Local): 56.92%; Alexis Galarneau (Visit): 43.08%. For Alexis Galarneau (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -3.06%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
PlayUp🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.24%E -1.91%K -4.63%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.37%E -3.43%K -6.41%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-20 11:48
Betway🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -3.24%E -1.91%K -4.63%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -11.68%E -5.70%K -11.13%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-20 11:48
Pinnacle🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -4.38%E -2.61%K -6.44%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -3.06%E -1.36%K -2.45%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-05-20 11:10
Marathon Bet🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.17%EV -4.95%E -2.96%K -7.38%G +0.000%	2.14I 46.73%NM 43.83%EV -7.80%E -3.65%K -6.85%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-05-20 11:47
Fliff🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -4.95%E -2.96%K -7.38%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -11.68%E -5.70%K -11.13%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-05-20 11:49
theScore Bet🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.79%E -4.81%K -12.57%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.22%E -2.37%K -4.35%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-20 11:19
Betsson🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -8.93%E -5.58%K -14.89%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.37%E -3.43%K -6.41%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-20 11:39
NordicBet🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -8.93%E -5.58%K -14.89%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -7.37%E -3.43%K -6.41%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-20 11:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.69I 59.17%NM 57.64%	2.30I 43.48%NM 42.36%	2.6%	2026-05-20 11:48
Novig◎	1.75I 57.14%NM 55.24%	2.16I 46.30%NM 44.76%	3.4%	2026-05-20 11:49