The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Nicolas Mejia v Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nicolas Mejia (Local)

Prediction 11.72%8.53fair odd
EV +75.83%
Edge +5.06%
Kelly +5.42%
Growth +4.11%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.43%11.44%11.22%16.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.707.927.5015.0017.54%12.63%13.33%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Visit)

Prediction 88.28%1.13fair odd
EV +0.637%
Edge +0.559%
Kelly +4.55%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.45%88.56%88.78%93.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.071.051.1497.09%93.46%95.24%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nicolas Mejia (Local): 11.72%; Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Visit): 88.28%. For Nicolas Mejia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.53. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +75.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +75.83%E +5.06%K +5.42%G +4.11%1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -9.07%E -8.81%K -302.46%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-18 16:15
theScore Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV +11.36%E +1.20%K +1.34%G +0.152%1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -7.31%E -6.96%K -146.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-18 16:15
Betway🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV +5.50%E +0.611%K +0.687%G +0.038%1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -9.07%E -8.81%K -302.46%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-18 16:15
NordicBet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -0.361%E -0.043%K -0.048%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 89.19%EV -9.07%E -8.81%K -302.46%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-18 16:15
Fliff🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 11.76%EV -8.57%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 88.24%EV -8.19%E -7.88%K -204.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-18 16:15
Betsson🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -12.08%E -1.61%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.04I 96.15%NM 87.82%EV -8.19%E -7.88%K -204.78%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-18 16:15
Pinnacle🎯6.61I 15.13%NM 14.49%EV -22.52%E -3.41%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 85.51%EV -1.13%E -1.01%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-18 16:05
NetBet (FR)🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.35%EV -30.84%E -5.23%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 84.65%EV -5.54%E -5.18%K -79.18%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-18 15:54
GTbets🎯5.81I 17.21%NM 16.04%EV -31.89%E -5.49%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.96%EV -2.01%E -1.81%K -18.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-18 15:54
PlayUp🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -32.60%E -5.67%K -6.86%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV +0.637%E +0.559%K +4.55%G +0.029%5.1%2026-05-18 15:58
MyBookie.ag🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.30%EV -33.18%E -5.82%K -7.06%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.70%EV -2.01%E -1.81%K -18.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-18 16:01
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎7.00I 14.29%NM 13.90%1.13I 88.50%NM 86.10%2.8%2026-05-18 16:05