Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.95
assuming max odds 2.05
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nerman Fatic (Local): 50.83%; Luka Mikrut (Visit): 49.17%. For Luka Mikrut (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.03. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.802%.
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.11%EV -8.00%E -4.42%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.89%EV +0.802%E +0.391%K +0.764%G +0.006% | 4.0% | 2026-05-19 15:57 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -11.05%E -6.31%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -1.66%E -0.828%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-19 15:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -13.59%E -8.00%K -19.42%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.96%EV -5.59%E -2.91%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-19 15:51 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%EV -8.00%E -4.42%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%EV -7.07%E -3.74%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-19 15:51 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -0.885%E -0.454%K -0.931%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -11.49%E -6.38%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-19 16:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -2.92%E -1.53%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -11.49%E -6.38%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-19 16:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -3.43%E -1.80%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -11.49%E -6.38%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-19 16:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -3.43%E -1.80%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -11.49%E -6.38%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-19 16:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.63%EV -4.95%E -2.65%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%EV -12.97%E -7.33%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-19 16:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96% | 4.2% | 2026-05-19 15:57 |
| Novig◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.24% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76% | 5.8% | 2026-05-19 16:00 |