Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nerman Fatic v Kyrian Jacquet

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 14:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

41%

59%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nerman Fatic (Local)

Prediction 41.46%2.41fair odd

EV -3.81%

Edge -1.64%

Kelly -2.88%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.57%41.46%41.56%42.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.202.272.282.3245.45%44.05%43.86%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kyrian Jacquet (Visit)

Prediction 58.54%1.71fair odd

EV -3.41%

Edge -2.07%

Kelly -5.25%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.74%58.54%58.44%59.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.571.611.611.6563.69%62.27%62.11%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nerman Fatic (Local): 41.46%; Kyrian Jacquet (Visit): 58.54%. For Kyrian Jacquet (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.65, with an expected value of -3.41%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.32I 43.10%NM 41.56%EV -3.81%E -1.64%K -2.88%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.44%EV -3.41%E -2.07%K -5.25%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-05-20 13:50
theScore Bet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.64%E -2.02%K -3.57%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.10%E -5.16%K -14.20%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-20 13:50
PlayUp🎯	2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.47%E -2.40%K -4.27%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.58%E -2.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-05-20 13:49
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.71%E -2.98%K -5.37%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.10%E -5.16%K -14.20%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-20 13:48
Betway🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.78%E -3.99%K -7.32%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.75%E -3.57%K -9.43%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-20 13:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.32I 43.10%NM 42.14%	1.69I 59.17%NM 57.86%	2.3%	2026-05-20 13:50
Novig◎	2.36I 42.37%NM 41.29%	1.66I 60.24%NM 58.71%	2.6%	2026-05-20 13:49