Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lukas Neumayer v Alex Bolt

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

88%

12%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lukas Neumayer (Local)

Prediction 87.70%1.14fair odd

EV +1.73%

Edge +1.49%

Kelly +10.79%

Growth +0.186%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

82.55%87.82%88.28%92.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.021.071.051.1698.04%93.02%95.24%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alex Bolt (Visit)

Prediction 12.30%8.13fair odd

EV +59.96%

Edge +4.61%

Kelly +5.00%

Growth +3.00%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

7.47%12.18%11.72%17.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.307.817.6313.0018.87%12.80%13.11%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lukas Neumayer (Local): 87.70%; Alex Bolt (Visit): 12.30%. For Alex Bolt (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.13. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +59.96%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BoyleSports🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 92.53%EV -7.92%E -7.54%K -158.40%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.47%EV +59.96%E +4.61%K +5.00%G +3.00%	2.9%	2026-05-18 15:54
Fliff🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 90.49%EV -10.55%E -10.34%K -527.55%G +0.000%	9.70I 10.31%NM 9.51%EV +19.36%E +2.00%K +2.23%G +0.431%	8.3%	2026-05-18 15:55
theScore Bet🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -7.92%E -7.54%K -158.40%G +0.000%	9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV +16.90%E +1.78%K +1.99%G +0.336%	5.8%	2026-05-18 15:55
Betway🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -7.92%E -7.54%K -158.40%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -1.56%E -0.195%K -0.223%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-18 15:55
Betsson🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 88.17%EV -8.80%E -8.46%K -219.93%G +0.000%	7.75I 12.90%NM 11.83%EV -4.64%E -0.598%K -0.687%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-05-18 15:55
NordicBet🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 87.82%EV -8.80%E -8.46%K -219.93%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -7.71%E -1.03%K -1.19%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-05-18 15:55
Pinnacle🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 84.17%EV -0.028%E -0.024%K -0.197%G +0.000%	6.06I 16.50%NM 15.83%EV -25.43%E -4.20%K -5.03%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-05-18 15:50
GTbets🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 83.40%EV +1.73%E +1.49%K +10.79%G +0.186%	5.83I 17.15%NM 16.60%EV -28.26%E -4.85%K -5.85%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-05-18 15:04
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 83.59%EV -5.29%E -4.90%K -66.12%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -32.32%E -5.88%K -7.18%G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-05-18 15:05
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 82.55%EV -1.78%E -1.59%K -14.85%G +0.000%	5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -34.78%E -6.56%K -8.09%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-18 15:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.14I 87.72%NM 85.27%	6.60I 15.15%NM 14.73%	2.9%	2026-05-18 15:49