Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luca Van Assche v Vilius Gaubas

Kickoff: 2026-05-25 09:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

67%

33%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Luca Van Assche (Local)

Prediction 66.59%1.50fair odd

EV -4.11%

Edge -2.86%

Kelly -9.35%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

64.53%66.59%66.59%66.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.431.431.431.4469.93%69.77%69.93%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vilius Gaubas (Visit)

Prediction 33.41%2.99fair odd

EV -4.78%

Edge -1.68%

Kelly -2.58%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.41%33.41%33.41%35.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.622.762.802.8538.17%36.28%35.71%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luca Van Assche (Local): 66.59%; Vilius Gaubas (Visit): 33.41%. For Luca Van Assche (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.50. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.44, with an expected value of -4.11%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Paddy Power🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.11%E -2.86%K -9.35%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -12.46%E -4.76%K -7.69%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-25 09:00
BetRivers🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.78%E -3.34%K -11.11%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.78%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-25 09:00
Unibet🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.78%E -3.34%K -11.11%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -6.45%E -2.30%K -3.58%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-25 09:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.33I 75.19%NM 67.64%	2.78I 35.97%NM 32.36%	11.2%	2026-05-25 09:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.33I 75.19%NM 67.64%	2.78I 35.97%NM 32.36%	11.2%	2026-05-25 09:00