Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lautaro Midon v Roberto Carballes Baena

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

29%

71%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lautaro Midon (Local)

Prediction 29.26%3.42fair odd

EV +8.28%

Edge +2.24%

Kelly +3.06%

Growth +0.254%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

24.80%29.76%27.65%36.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.553.143.353.7039.22%31.84%29.85%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Roberto Carballes Baena (Visit)

Prediction 70.74%1.41fair odd

EV +6.10%

Edge +4.07%

Kelly +12.21%

Growth +0.745%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

63.41%70.24%72.35%75.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.221.341.281.5081.97%74.85%78.13%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lautaro Midon (Local): 29.26%; Roberto Carballes Baena (Visit): 70.74%. For Lautaro Midon (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.28%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -20.99%E -7.77%K -12.35%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV +6.10%E +4.07%K +12.21%G +0.745%	3.7%	2026-05-19 11:00
PlayUp🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -23.91%E -9.20%K -14.95%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV +6.10%E +4.07%K +12.21%G +0.745%	5.1%	2026-05-19 11:17
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.66I 37.59%NM 34.80%EV -22.16%E -8.33%K -13.35%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.20%EV +0.446%E +0.314%K +1.06%G +0.005%	8.0%	2026-05-19 10:59
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -25.38%E -9.95%K -16.37%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 64.56%EV -0.969%E -0.692%K -2.42%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-05-19 11:00
theScore Bet🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -0.504%E -0.148%K -0.210%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -8.75%E -6.78%K -30.17%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-19 11:20
Betsson🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -3.43%E -1.04%K -1.49%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -10.16%E -8.00%K -37.65%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-19 11:20
Fliff🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -0.504%E -0.148%K -0.210%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -10.87%E -8.63%K -41.82%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-19 11:20
BoyleSports🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV +5.35%E +1.49%K +2.06%G +0.110%	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -11.58%E -9.26%K -46.32%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-19 11:20
Betway🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV +2.42%E +0.692%K +0.969%G +0.023%	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -11.58%E -9.26%K -46.32%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-05-19 11:20
NordicBet🎯	3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV +8.28%E +2.24%K +3.06%G +0.254%	1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -13.70%E -11.23%K -62.28%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-19 11:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.78I 35.97%NM 35.05%	1.50I 66.67%NM 64.95%	2.6%	2026-05-19 11:17
Novig◎	3.52I 28.41%NM 27.12%	1.31I 76.34%NM 72.88%	4.7%	2026-05-19 11:20