Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jay Clarke v Dane Sweeny

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

80%

20%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jay Clarke (Local)

Prediction 80.04%1.25fair odd

EV -4.76%

Edge -4.00%

Kelly -25.03%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

78.71%79.98%80.07%81.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.121.171.171.1989.29%85.74%85.47%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dane Sweeny (Visit)

Prediction 19.96%5.01fair odd

EV +0.415%

Edge +0.082%

Kelly +0.103%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

18.96%20.02%19.93%21.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.354.604.505.0322.99%21.75%22.22%19.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jay Clarke (Local): 80.04%; Dane Sweeny (Visit): 19.96%. For Dane Sweeny (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.03, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.415%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.87%EV -4.76%E -4.00%K -25.03%G +0.000%	5.03I 19.88%NM 19.13%EV +0.415%E +0.082%K +0.103%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-05-18 11:05
Betway🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.36%E -5.43%K -37.39%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.184%E -0.037%K -0.046%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-18 11:50
theScore Bet🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -6.36%E -5.43%K -37.39%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -8.17%E -1.78%K -2.27%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-18 11:40
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 80.42%EV -10.36%E -9.25%K -86.32%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -8.17%E -1.78%K -2.27%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-05-18 11:40
Marathon Bet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -4.76%E -4.00%K -25.03%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -12.16%E -2.76%K -3.58%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-18 11:20
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -6.36%E -5.43%K -37.39%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -12.16%E -2.76%K -3.58%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-18 11:45
Betsson🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 79.14%EV -7.16%E -6.17%K -44.73%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -12.16%E -2.76%K -3.58%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-05-18 11:55
NordicBet🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 78.95%EV -7.16%E -6.17%K -44.73%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 21.05%EV -13.16%E -3.03%K -3.93%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-05-18 11:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.19I 84.03%NM 81.08%	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.92%	3.6%	2026-05-18 11:50