Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

James McCabe v Zdenek Kolar

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

17%

83%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

James McCabe (Local)

Prediction 17.12%5.84fair odd

EV +2.73%

Edge +0.454%

Kelly +0.545%

Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

15.73%17.11%17.30%18.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.955.385.336.0020.20%18.59%18.78%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zdenek Kolar (Visit)

Prediction 82.88%1.21fair odd

EV -4.69%

Edge -4.08%

Kelly -31.26%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

81.55%82.89%82.70%84.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.121.131.121.1589.29%88.59%89.29%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: James McCabe (Local): 17.12%; Zdenek Kolar (Visit): 82.88%. For James McCabe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.84. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BoyleSports🎯	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +2.73%E +0.454%K +0.545%G +0.015%	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -7.18%E -6.41%K -59.80%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-19 09:50
Pinnacle🎯	5.83I 17.15%NM 16.48%EV -0.185%E -0.032%K -0.038%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.52%EV -4.69%E -4.08%K -31.26%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-05-19 09:10
PlayUp🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -5.83%E -1.06%K -1.30%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.69%E -4.08%K -31.26%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-19 09:46
theScore Bet🎯	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -7.55%E -1.40%K -1.72%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -6.35%E -5.62%K -48.82%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-19 09:50
Betway🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -10.12%E -1.93%K -2.38%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 82.42%EV -7.18%E -6.41%K -59.80%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-19 09:50
Fliff🎯	5.15I 19.42%NM 17.86%EV -11.83%E -2.30%K -2.85%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 82.14%EV -7.18%E -6.41%K -59.80%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-05-19 09:50
Betsson🎯	4.95I 20.20%NM 18.45%EV -15.25%E -3.08%K -3.86%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 81.55%EV -7.18%E -6.41%K -59.80%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-05-19 09:50
NordicBet🎯	4.95I 20.20%NM 18.45%EV -15.25%E -3.08%K -3.86%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 81.55%EV -7.18%E -6.41%K -59.80%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-05-19 09:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	6.41I 15.60%NM 15.32%	1.16I 86.21%NM 84.68%	1.8%	2026-05-19 09:50
Smarkets◎	6.40I 15.63%NM 15.12%	1.14I 87.72%NM 84.88%	3.3%	2026-05-19 09:20