Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jaime Faria v Grigor Dimitrov

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 10:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

57%

43%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jaime Faria (Local)

Prediction 56.59%1.77fair odd

EV -3.23%

Edge -1.89%

Kelly -4.55%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.41%56.57%57.00%59.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.541.641.641.7164.94%61.03%60.98%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grigor Dimitrov (Visit)

Prediction 43.41%2.30fair odd

EV -2.33%

Edge -1.04%

Kelly -1.86%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.63%43.43%43.00%44.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.052.142.132.2548.78%46.68%46.95%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jaime Faria (Local): 56.59%; Grigor Dimitrov (Visit): 43.41%. For Grigor Dimitrov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.30. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -2.33%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.47%EV -3.23%E -1.89%K -4.55%G +0.000%	2.13I 46.95%NM 44.53%EV -7.54%E -3.54%K -6.67%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-05-19 10:29
PlayUp🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.79%E -2.23%K -5.42%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.67%E -3.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-19 10:40
Pinnacle🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -4.36%E -2.58%K -6.32%G +0.000%	2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -2.76%E -1.23%K -2.23%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-05-19 10:40
Marathon Bet🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -4.36%E -2.58%K -6.32%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -8.84%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-19 10:33
Betway🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.49%E -3.29%K -8.20%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.84%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-05-19 10:40
BoyleSports🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.49%E -3.29%K -8.20%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.84%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-05-19 10:40
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 56.50%EV -7.19%E -4.38%K -11.23%G +0.000%	2.13I 46.95%NM 43.50%EV -7.54%E -3.54%K -6.67%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-19 10:35
theScore Bet🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.32%E -5.14%K -13.42%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.50%E -2.05%K -3.75%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-19 10:39
NordicBet🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -9.45%E -5.91%K -15.76%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -6.67%E -3.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-19 10:39
Betsson🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -9.45%E -5.91%K -15.76%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -6.67%E -3.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-19 10:39
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 56.16%EV -9.45%E -5.91%K -15.76%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -11.01%E -5.37%K -10.49%G +0.000%	11.3%	2026-05-19 10:29
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 57.22%EV -11.15%E -7.10%K -19.56%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 42.78%EV -8.84%E -4.21%K -8.04%G +0.000%	11.3%	2026-05-19 10:29
Fliff🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -12.85%E -8.34%K -23.79%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -2.33%E -1.04%K -1.86%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-05-19 10:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.73I 57.80%NM 56.31%	2.23I 44.84%NM 43.69%	2.6%	2026-05-19 10:40
Smarkets◎	1.72I 58.14%NM 56.35%	2.22I 45.05%NM 43.65%	3.2%	2026-05-19 10:30