Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.87
assuming max odds 2.04
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Henrique Rocha (Local): 52.20%; Zsombor Piros (Visit): 47.80%. For Henrique Rocha (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.92. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.87, with an expected value of -2.39%; they did not produce positive expected value.
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -2.39%E -1.28%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -10.61%E -5.67%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-19 14:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -3.44%E -1.86%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -11.56%E -6.25%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-19 14:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -3.44%E -1.86%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -11.56%E -6.25%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-19 14:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -4.48%E -2.45%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.29%EV -2.48%E -1.22%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-19 14:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.00%E -2.75%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.39%E -2.20%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-19 14:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%EV -5.52%E -3.05%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%EV -9.65%E -5.11%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-19 13:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.05%E -3.36%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.70%E -4.55%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-19 14:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.85%EV -9.18%E -5.27%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.15%EV -2.96%E -1.46%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-19 13:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.70%E -5.61%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -4.39%E -2.20%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-19 14:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.17%EV -11.27%E -6.63%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.83%EV -7.74%E -4.01%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-19 14:07 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.42% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 46.58% | 1.7% | 2026-05-19 14:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83% | 2.5% | 2026-05-19 14:10 |