Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Henrique Rocha v Borna Gojo

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Henrique Rocha (Local)

Prediction 58.96%1.70fair odd
EV -5.07%
Edge -3.15%
Kelly -8.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.27%59.09%58.59%60.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.591.591.6164.10%62.84%62.89%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Borna Gojo (Visit)

Prediction 41.04%2.44fair odd
EV -0.276%
Edge -0.114%
Kelly -0.193%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.70%40.91%41.41%41.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.222.292.252.4345.05%43.76%44.44%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Henrique Rocha (Local): 58.96%; Borna Gojo (Visit): 41.04%. For Borna Gojo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.44. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.43, with an expected value of -0.276%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.07%E -3.15%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.66%E -3.41%K -6.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-20 13:29
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -5.66%E -3.54%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV -0.276%E -0.114%K -0.193%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-20 13:09
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.66%E -3.54%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.56%E -1.51%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-20 13:09
Betway🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -6.25%E -3.93%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -7.66%E -3.41%K -6.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-20 13:09
Betsson🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.27%EV -6.25%E -3.93%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.73%EV -8.89%E -4.01%K -7.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-20 13:29
NordicBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.27%EV -6.25%E -3.93%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.73%EV -8.89%E -4.01%K -7.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-20 13:29
MyBookie.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.27%EV -6.25%E -3.93%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.73%EV -8.89%E -4.01%K -7.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-20 13:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.00%EV -8.02%E -5.14%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.00%EV -3.97%E -1.70%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-20 13:08
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.64I 60.98%NM 59.61%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.39%2.3%2026-05-20 13:29
Novig1.63I 61.35%NM 59.35%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.65%3.4%2026-05-20 13:29