Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gustavo Heide v Jurij Rodionov

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 12:12 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gustavo Heide (Local)

Prediction 67.35%1.48fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -3.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.85%67.34%67.35%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.401.401.4674.07%71.56%71.43%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jurij Rodionov (Visit)

Prediction 32.65%3.06fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.681%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.19%32.66%32.65%34.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.832.813.0037.04%35.38%35.59%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gustavo Heide (Local): 67.35%; Jurij Rodionov (Visit): 32.65%. For Gustavo Heide (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.48. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.46, with an expected value of -1.67%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.89%EV -1.67%E -1.15%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.11%EV -7.92%E -2.81%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-20 12:09
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -2.35%E -1.62%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -8.57%E -3.06%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-20 12:09
MyBookie.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -5.71%E -4.08%K -14.28%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.82%EV -10.53%E -3.84%K -6.05%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-20 12:04
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -5.71%E -4.08%K -14.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -11.84%E -4.38%K -6.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-20 12:00
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -5.71%E -4.08%K -14.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -11.84%E -4.38%K -6.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-20 12:00
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.41%E -6.18%K -23.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.04%E -0.681%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-20 12:09
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.41%E -6.18%K -23.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.04%E -0.681%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-20 12:09
Fliff🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.86%EV -9.08%E -6.73%K -25.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -6.94%E -2.44%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-20 12:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%2.3%2026-05-20 12:08
Novig1.44I 69.44%NM 66.97%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.03%3.7%2026-05-20 12:08