Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gonzalo Bueno v Vitaliy Sachko

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 10:42 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

57%

43%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gonzalo Bueno (Local)

Prediction 56.80%1.76fair odd

EV +5.09%

Edge +2.75%

Kelly +5.99%

Growth +0.305%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

51.75%56.45%59.13%59.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.551.671.591.8564.52%59.88%62.89%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vitaliy Sachko (Visit)

Prediction 43.20%2.32fair odd

EV -0.651%

Edge -0.283%

Kelly -0.501%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.26%43.55%40.87%48.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.882.122.202.3053.19%47.15%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gonzalo Bueno (Local): 56.80%; Vitaliy Sachko (Visit): 43.20%. For Gonzalo Bueno (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.76. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 52.07%EV +5.09%E +2.75%K +5.99%G +0.305%	2.01I 49.75%NM 47.93%EV -13.18%E -6.56%K -13.05%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-05-20 10:19
PlayUp🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV +3.95%E +2.16%K +4.76%G +0.188%	1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -14.47%E -7.31%K -14.77%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-20 10:19
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.79I 55.87%NM 51.75%EV +1.68%E +0.939%K +2.13%G +0.036%	1.92I 52.08%NM 48.25%EV -17.06%E -8.89%K -18.55%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-20 10:19
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 52.08%EV -1.73%E -0.999%K -2.37%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 47.92%EV -18.79%E -10.00%K -21.36%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-05-20 10:19
theScore Bet🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -9.68%E -6.09%K -16.41%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -0.651%E -0.283%K -0.501%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-20 10:39
NordicBet🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -10.82%E -6.89%K -18.98%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -2.81%E -1.25%K -2.25%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-20 10:39
Fliff🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -10.82%E -6.89%K -18.98%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -4.97%E -2.26%K -4.14%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-05-20 10:39
Betway🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -11.95%E -7.71%K -21.73%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -0.651%E -0.283%K -0.501%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-20 10:39
Betsson🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -11.95%E -7.71%K -21.73%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -2.81%E -1.25%K -2.25%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-20 10:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42%	2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58%	2.0%	2026-05-20 10:37
Novig◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.02%	2.29I 43.67%NM 40.98%	6.6%	2026-05-20 10:39