Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gianluca Cadenasso v Leandro Riedi

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

46%

54%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gianluca Cadenasso (Local)

Prediction 45.97%2.18fair odd

EV +1.14%

Edge +0.518%

Kelly +0.950%

Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.41%46.90%45.97%53.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.792.022.082.2055.87%49.42%48.19%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leandro Riedi (Visit)

Prediction 54.03%1.85fair odd

EV +10.22%

Edge +5.01%

Kelly +9.82%

Growth +1.00%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.74%53.10%54.03%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.601.721.652.0462.50%58.20%60.61%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gianluca Cadenasso (Local): 45.97%; Leandro Riedi (Visit): 54.03%. For Leandro Riedi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.85. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -17.71%E -9.89%K -22.42%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV +10.22%E +5.01%K +9.82%G +1.00%	4.9%	2026-05-20 16:40
Betsson🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 47.95%EV -12.65%E -6.66%K -14.06%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -5.45%E -3.12%K -7.27%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-05-20 16:50
Betway🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -3.46%E -1.65%K -3.14%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -10.85%E -6.58%K -16.70%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-20 16:50
Fliff🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -5.76%E -2.81%K -5.48%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -10.85%E -6.58%K -16.70%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-05-20 16:50
theScore Bet🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +1.14%E +0.518%K +0.950%G +0.011%	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -12.48%E -7.70%K -20.12%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-20 16:50
NordicBet🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -3.46%E -1.65%K -3.14%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -13.56%E -8.47%K -22.59%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-05-20 16:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%	4.3%	2026-05-20 16:50