Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Federico Cinà v Yosuke Watanuki

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

81%

19%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Federico Cinà (Local)

Prediction 81.14%1.23fair odd

EV -3.44%

Edge -2.89%

Kelly -18.10%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

79.57%81.44%81.02%83.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.121.151.141.1989.29%87.27%87.72%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yosuke Watanuki (Visit)

Prediction 18.86%5.30fair odd

EV +7.48%

Edge +1.31%

Kelly +1.59%

Growth +0.119%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.42%18.56%18.98%20.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.404.974.955.7022.73%20.11%20.20%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Federico Cinà (Local): 81.14%; Yosuke Watanuki (Visit): 18.86%. For Yosuke Watanuki (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.30. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.48%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.58%EV -9.12%E -8.14%K -75.99%G +0.000%	5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV +7.48%E +1.31%K +1.59%G +0.119%	6.8%	2026-05-18 14:50
GTbets🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 81.52%EV -3.44%E -2.89%K -18.10%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 18.48%EV -1.00%E -0.191%K -0.236%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-05-18 14:25
NordicBet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 81.99%EV -9.12%E -8.14%K -75.99%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -3.83%E -0.751%K -0.935%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-05-18 14:50
Betsson🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 81.99%EV -9.12%E -8.14%K -75.99%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -3.83%E -0.751%K -0.935%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-05-18 14:50
Pinnacle🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 81.02%EV -3.44%E -2.89%K -18.10%G +0.000%	5.08I 19.69%NM 18.98%EV -4.21%E -0.829%K -1.03%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-05-18 14:05
Betway🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.06%E -4.33%K -29.78%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.72%E -1.14%K -1.43%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-18 14:55
Marathon Bet🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -5.87%E -5.06%K -36.71%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -7.60%E -1.55%K -1.95%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-05-18 14:48
Fliff🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 80.97%EV -7.50%E -6.58%K -53.55%G +0.000%	4.85I 20.62%NM 19.03%EV -8.55%E -1.76%K -2.22%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-18 14:55
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 80.67%EV -6.68%E -5.81%K -44.57%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -9.49%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-18 14:04
BoyleSports🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 80.81%EV -7.50%E -6.58%K -53.55%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV -9.49%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-05-18 14:05
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 80.76%EV -9.12%E -8.14%K -75.99%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 19.24%EV -11.37%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-05-18 14:05
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 79.57%EV -8.31%E -7.35%K -63.91%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -17.03%E -3.87%K -5.01%G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-05-18 14:21

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.16I 86.21%NM 83.80%	6.00I 16.67%NM 16.20%	2.9%	2026-05-18 14:55