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Emilio Nava v Pedro Martinez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Emilio Nava (Local)
assuming max odds 1.42
Pedro Martinez (Visit)
assuming max odds 3.10
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Emilio Nava (Local): 68.82%; Pedro Martinez (Visit): 31.18%. For Emilio Nava (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.42, with an expected value of -2.28%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.44%EV -2.28%E -1.60%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.56%EV -3.96%E -1.29%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-22 11:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.75%EV -3.65%E -2.61%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.25%EV -3.96%E -1.29%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-22 11:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.65%E -2.61%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.46%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-22 10:56 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.03%E -3.65%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.34%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 11:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.41%E -4.71%K -17.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.34%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-22 11:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.41%E -4.71%K -17.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.46%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-22 11:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.41%E -4.71%K -17.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.46%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-22 11:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -7.09%E -5.26%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -8.01%E -2.72%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-22 11:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -7.09%E -5.26%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -8.01%E -2.72%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-22 11:10 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.53%EV -7.09%E -5.26%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.47%EV -8.33%E -2.83%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-22 11:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.91%EV -7.78%E -5.81%K -22.89%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.09%EV -7.39%E -2.49%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-22 11:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.47%E -6.37%K -25.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -6.46%E -2.15%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-22 11:11 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 0.8% | 2026-05-22 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 0.8% | 2026-05-22 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 0.8% | 2026-05-22 11:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.17% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.83% | 2.5% | 2026-05-22 11:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.66% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.34% | 3.3% | 2026-05-22 11:20 |