Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Elias Ymer v Arthur Fery

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Elias Ymer (Local)

Prediction 32.32%3.09fair odd
EV +0.198%
Edge +0.064%
Kelly +0.094%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.02%32.24%31.97%34.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.872.903.1037.04%34.86%34.54%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arthur Fery (Visit)

Prediction 67.68%1.48fair odd
EV -3.90%
Edge -2.74%
Kelly -9.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.85%67.76%68.03%69.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.371.381.4275.19%72.77%72.46%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elias Ymer (Local): 32.32%; Arthur Fery (Visit): 67.68%. For Elias Ymer (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.09. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.198%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV +0.198%E +0.064%K +0.094%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -9.99%E -7.51%K -30.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-19 16:49
Pinnacle🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 31.90%EV -2.71%E -0.901%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.10%EV -4.57%E -3.24%K -11.16%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-19 16:20
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.03%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.96%E -5.85%K -22.11%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-19 16:40
GTbets🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.65%E -1.58%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.25%E -3.75%K -13.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-19 16:00
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.27%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.90%E -2.74%K -9.28%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-19 16:00
Fliff🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -6.27%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.40%EV -9.31%E -6.95%K -27.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-19 16:50
MyBookie.ag🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 32.00%EV -6.59%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.00%EV -7.96%E -5.85%K -22.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-19 16:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 32.05%EV -8.85%E -3.14%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.95%EV -9.99%E -7.51%K -30.27%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-19 16:38
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.76%EV -11.11%E -4.04%K -6.35%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 67.24%EV -9.31%E -6.95%K -27.39%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-19 16:20
Betsson🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -12.73%E -4.72%K -7.49%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -5.25%E -3.75%K -13.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-19 16:50
NordicBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -12.73%E -4.72%K -7.49%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -5.25%E -3.75%K -13.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-19 16:50
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -12.73%E -4.72%K -7.49%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -5.25%E -3.75%K -13.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-19 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43%1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57%2.8%2026-05-19 16:41
Novig3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%3.3%2026-05-19 16:50