Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dalibor Svrcina v Guy Den Ouden

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 13:22 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

68%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dalibor Svrcina (Local)

Prediction 67.50%1.48fair odd

EV -5.50%

Edge -3.93%

Kelly -13.75%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.27%67.75%66.90%71.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.291.361.371.4077.52%73.71%72.99%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Guy Den Ouden (Visit)

Prediction 32.50%3.08fair odd

EV +6.60%

Edge +2.01%

Kelly +2.89%

Growth +0.191%

assuming max odds 3.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.23%32.25%33.10%33.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.752.942.853.2836.36%34.01%35.09%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dalibor Svrcina (Local): 67.50%; Guy Den Ouden (Visit): 32.50%. For Guy Den Ouden (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.08. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 71.77%EV -12.92%E -10.02%K -44.57%G +0.000%	3.28I 30.49%NM 28.23%EV +6.60%E +2.01%K +2.89%G +0.191%	8.0%	2026-05-18 13:05
Pinnacle🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 70.22%EV -7.52%E -5.49%K -20.34%G +0.000%	3.23I 30.96%NM 29.78%EV +4.97%E +1.54%K +2.23%G +0.111%	4.0%	2026-05-18 13:05
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -10.90%E -8.26%K -34.06%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV +0.749%E +0.242%K +0.357%G +0.003%	8.0%	2026-05-18 13:05
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -12.92%E -10.02%K -44.57%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.07%EV -2.50%E -0.834%K -1.25%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-05-18 13:05
theScore Bet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -7.38%E -2.59%K -3.99%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-18 13:20
BoyleSports🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.63%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-18 13:20
Betway🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.50%E -3.93%K -13.75%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.63%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-18 13:20
NordicBet🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 66.75%EV -7.52%E -5.49%K -20.34%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -10.63%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-05-18 13:21
Betsson🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 66.75%EV -7.52%E -5.49%K -20.34%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -10.63%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-05-18 13:21

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.36I 73.53%NM 71.73%	3.45I 28.99%NM 28.27%	2.5%	2026-05-18 13:05