Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charles Broom v Ugo Blanchet

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charles Broom (Local)

Prediction 19.53%5.12fair odd
EV +7.40%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +1.64%
Growth +0.122%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.92%20.00%18.09%26.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.444.505.5028.57%22.55%22.22%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ugo Blanchet (Visit)

Prediction 80.47%1.24fair odd
EV +3.01%
Edge +2.35%
Kelly +10.73%
Growth +0.323%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.53%80.00%81.91%83.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.191.161.2889.29%84.23%86.21%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Charles Broom (Local): 19.53%; Ugo Blanchet (Visit): 80.47%. For Charles Broom (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.12. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.92I 25.51%NM 24.62%EV -23.45%E -5.98%K -8.03%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 75.38%EV +3.01%E +2.35%K +10.73%G +0.323%3.6%2026-05-18 16:05
PlayUp🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -27.75%E -7.50%K -10.28%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV +3.01%E +2.35%K +10.73%G +0.323%5.2%2026-05-18 16:05
GTbets🎯3.57I 28.01%NM 26.24%EV -30.29%E -8.48%K -11.79%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.76%EV +2.20%E +1.73%K +8.15%G +0.179%6.8%2026-05-18 15:54
MyBookie.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -31.66%E -9.04%K -12.66%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.53%EV +1.40%E +1.11%K +5.37%G +0.075%7.9%2026-05-18 16:05
NetBet (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -29.70%E -8.25%K -11.42%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.00%EV -3.43%E -2.86%K -17.16%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-18 16:05
Fliff🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -12.13%E -2.70%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -6.65%E -5.73%K -41.57%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-18 16:15
theScore Bet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV +5.44%E +1.01%K +1.24%G +0.067%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -9.07%E -8.02%K -69.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-18 16:15
BoyleSports🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +7.40%E +1.34%K +1.64%G +0.122%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -9.87%E -8.81%K -82.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-18 16:15
Betway🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV +2.52%E +0.479%K +0.592%G +0.015%1.12I 89.29%NM 82.42%EV -9.87%E -8.81%K -82.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-18 16:15
NordicBet🎯4.95I 20.20%NM 18.45%EV -3.34%E -0.675%K -0.846%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 81.55%EV -9.87%E -8.81%K -82.25%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-18 16:15
Betsson🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -4.32%E -0.881%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 81.40%EV -9.87%E -8.81%K -82.25%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-18 16:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%3.1%2026-05-18 16:05