Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Borna Gojo v Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 09:42 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

61%

39%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Borna Gojo (Local)

Prediction 61.12%1.64fair odd

EV -2.82%

Edge -1.77%

Kelly -4.78%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.30%61.32%61.12%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.541.531.5966.67%65.00%65.36%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg (Visit)

Prediction 38.88%2.57fair odd

EV -2.80%

Edge -1.12%

Kelly -1.86%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.50%38.68%38.88%39.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.352.412.402.5042.55%41.54%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Borna Gojo (Local): 61.12%; Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg (Visit): 38.88%. For Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.50, with an expected value of -2.80%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.55%EV -2.82%E -1.77%K -4.78%G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98%NM 39.45%EV -5.13%E -2.10%K -3.56%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-05-19 09:10
PlayUp🎯	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.43%E -2.17%K -5.92%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.68%E -2.78%K -4.77%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-19 09:10
Marathon Bet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.17%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.24%G +0.000%	2.41I 41.49%NM 38.83%EV -6.29%E -2.61%K -4.46%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-19 09:36
theScore Bet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.24%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.68%E -2.78%K -4.77%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-19 09:10
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.24%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -8.63%E -3.67%K -6.39%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-19 09:09
Fliff🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 60.88%EV -7.71%E -5.11%K -15.12%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.12%EV -8.63%E -3.67%K -6.39%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-19 09:40
Betway🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.32%E -5.55%K -16.65%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.80%E -1.12%K -1.86%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-19 09:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%	2.9%	2026-05-19 09:40
Smarkets◎	1.55I 64.52%NM 62.29%	2.56I 39.06%NM 37.71%	3.6%	2026-05-19 09:40