Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.10
assuming max odds 1.82
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Borna Gojo (Local): 46.90%; Jurij Rodionov (Visit): 53.10%. For Borna Gojo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -1.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -1.50%E -0.715%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -9.21%E -5.38%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-22 08:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.85%E -1.88%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-22 08:58 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -4.32%E -2.12%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -3.37%E -1.85%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-22 09:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.25%E -2.60%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-22 09:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -5.25%E -2.60%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -5.49%E -3.08%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-22 09:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.19%E -3.10%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.02%E -3.40%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-22 09:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.19%E -3.10%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.14%E -4.71%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-22 09:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.19%E -3.10%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.14%E -4.71%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-22 09:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -6.19%E -3.10%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -8.68%E -5.04%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-22 08:58 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.07%EV -6.66%E -3.35%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.93%EV -6.02%E -3.40%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-22 09:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV -6.66%E -3.35%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -8.14%E -4.71%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-22 08:57 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -7.60%E -3.86%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -7.08%E -4.05%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-22 09:03 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.54%E -4.38%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.08%E -4.05%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-22 09:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.54%E -4.38%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.08%E -4.05%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-22 09:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -8.54%E -4.38%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -9.21%E -5.38%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-22 09:10 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 47.13% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.87% | 0.1% | 2026-05-22 09:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 47.13% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.87% | 0.1% | 2026-05-22 09:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.23% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.77% | 1.4% | 2026-05-22 09:10 |
| Novig◎ | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.84% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.16% | 1.5% | 2026-05-22 09:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.02% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.98% | 3.5% | 2026-05-22 09:10 |