Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arthur Fery v Pedro Martinez

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

49%

51%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arthur Fery (Local)

Prediction 48.56%2.06fair odd

EV -4.33%

Edge -2.20%

Kelly -4.46%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

48.00%48.46%48.56%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.851.921.941.9754.05%51.95%51.68%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pedro Martinez (Visit)

Prediction 51.44%1.94fair odd

EV -3.82%

Edge -2.04%

Kelly -4.39%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

51.05%51.54%51.44%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.751.811.801.8757.14%55.15%55.56%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arthur Fery (Local): 48.56%; Pedro Martinez (Visit): 51.44%. For Pedro Martinez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.87, with an expected value of -3.82%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 48.70%EV -4.33%E -2.20%K -4.46%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%EV -3.82%E -2.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-05-20 13:29
PlayUp🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.82%E -2.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-20 13:29
theScore Bet🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.30%E -2.72%K -5.58%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.42%E -4.12%K -9.27%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-20 08:59
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 48.25%EV -6.76%E -3.52%K -7.34%G +0.000%	1.79I 55.87%NM 51.75%EV -7.93%E -4.43%K -10.04%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-20 11:59
Betway🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.24%E -3.79%K -7.96%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.42%E -4.12%K -9.27%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-20 09:39
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -10.16%E -5.49%K -11.95%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 51.39%EV -9.99%E -5.71%K -13.32%G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-05-20 13:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.02I 49.50%NM 48.21%	1.88I 53.19%NM 51.79%	2.7%	2026-05-20 13:50
Novig◎	1.96I 51.02%NM 48.01%	1.81I 55.25%NM 51.99%	6.3%	2026-05-20 13:49