Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Antoine Ghibaudo v Michael Zheng

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

41%

59%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Antoine Ghibaudo (Local)

Prediction 41.42%2.41fair odd

EV +1.47%

Edge +0.601%

Kelly +1.02%

Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.29%41.55%41.45%44.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.272.252.4547.62%44.07%44.35%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michael Zheng (Visit)

Prediction 58.58%1.71fair odd

EV -1.58%

Edge -0.941%

Kelly -2.33%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

56.00%58.45%58.55%61.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.521.571.561.6865.79%63.69%64.31%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Antoine Ghibaudo (Local): 41.42%; Michael Zheng (Visit): 58.58%. For Antoine Ghibaudo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.47%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
PlayUp🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV +1.47%E +0.601%K +1.02%G +0.015%	1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -10.95%E -7.21%K -21.07%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-05-18 07:59
GTbets🎯	2.44I 40.98%NM 38.69%EV +1.06%E +0.434%K +0.735%G +0.008%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.31%EV -9.78%E -6.35%K -18.12%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-18 07:59
theScore Bet🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -2.67%E -1.14%K -1.98%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -8.61%E -5.52%K -15.38%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-18 08:00
NordicBet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -4.74%E -2.06%K -3.65%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -10.95%E -7.21%K -21.07%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-05-18 08:00
Betsson🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -4.74%E -2.06%K -3.65%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -10.95%E -7.21%K -21.07%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-05-18 08:00
Marathon Bet🎯	2.26I 44.25%NM 41.45%EV -6.40%E -2.83%K -5.08%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.55%EV -6.27%E -3.92%K -10.45%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-18 08:01
Pinnacle🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -6.81%E -3.03%K -5.45%G +0.000%	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -1.58%E -0.941%K -2.33%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-05-18 08:00
BoyleSports🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.81%E -3.03%K -5.45%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.03%E -5.11%K -14.08%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-18 08:00
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 41.47%EV -7.64%E -3.43%K -6.21%G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -7.44%E -4.71%K -12.83%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-18 07:59
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -10.95%E -5.09%K -9.52%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 58.11%EV -9.20%E -5.93%K -16.72%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-05-18 07:59
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -10.95%E -5.09%K -9.52%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 58.11%EV -9.20%E -5.93%K -16.72%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-05-18 07:59
Betway🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -13.02%E -6.20%K -11.84%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -3.34%E -2.02%K -5.14%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-18 08:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%	1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%	3.0%	2026-05-18 07:59