The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Andrea Pellegrino v Nicolas Moreno De Alboran

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Andrea Pellegrino (Local)

Prediction 85.30%1.17fair odd
EV +4.06%
Edge +3.33%
Kelly +18.45%
Growth +0.749%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.29%85.30%84.51%90.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.111.131.2298.04%89.75%88.89%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nicolas Moreno De Alboran (Visit)

Prediction 14.70%6.80fair odd
EV +47.05%
Edge +4.70%
Kelly +5.23%
Growth +2.46%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.26%14.70%15.49%21.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.406.245.4610.0022.73%16.02%18.32%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Andrea Pellegrino (Local): 85.30%; Nicolas Moreno De Alboran (Visit): 14.70%. For Nicolas Moreno De Alboran (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.80. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +47.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Betway🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -13.00%E -12.74%K -649.95%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +47.05%E +4.70%K +5.23%G +2.46%8.0%2026-05-18 08:25
theScore Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -10.44%E -9.94%K -208.80%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV +39.70%E +4.18%K +4.67%G +1.85%5.8%2026-05-18 08:24
NordicBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.17%EV -11.29%E -10.86%K -282.33%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.83%EV +13.96%E +1.80%K +2.07%G +0.289%9.1%2026-05-18 08:24
Betsson🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.17%EV -11.29%E -10.86%K -282.33%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.83%EV +13.96%E +1.80%K +2.07%G +0.289%9.1%2026-05-18 08:24
BoyleSports🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.18%E -5.61%K -61.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -11.77%E -1.96%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-18 08:00
Pinnacle🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 83.33%EV -1.06%E -0.912%K -6.61%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%EV -14.71%E -2.54%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-18 08:00
GTbets🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.27%EV +0.648%E +0.549%K +3.60%G +0.023%5.12I 19.53%NM 18.73%EV -24.71%E -4.83%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-18 07:59
MyBookie.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.13%EV -2.76%E -2.42%K -19.74%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.87%EV -27.95%E -5.70%K -7.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-18 07:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.90%EV -0.205%E -0.175%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.10%EV -31.62%E -6.80%K -8.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-18 07:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.42%EV -4.47%E -3.99%K -37.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -32.36%E -7.03%K -8.99%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-18 07:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.75%EV -3.62%E -3.20%K -27.82%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.25%EV -34.56%E -7.77%K -10.02%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-18 07:59
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV +4.06%E +3.33%K +18.45%G +0.749%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -35.30%E -8.02%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-18 07:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%4.1%2026-05-18 07:59