Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alex Molcan v Oliver Crawford

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

83%

17%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alex Molcan (Local)

Prediction 82.73%1.21fair odd

EV -2.37%

Edge -2.01%

Kelly -13.18%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

78.27%82.96%81.43%88.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.021.121.131.1898.04%89.13%88.50%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oliver Crawford (Visit)

Prediction 17.27%5.79fair odd

EV +47.62%

Edge +5.57%

Kelly +6.31%

Growth +3.00%

assuming max odds 8.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

11.21%17.04%18.57%21.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.255.755.058.5523.53%17.38%19.80%11.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex Molcan (Local): 82.73%; Oliver Crawford (Visit): 17.27%. For Oliver Crawford (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.79. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +47.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.79%EV -10.65%E -9.86%K -133.08%G +0.000%	8.55I 11.70%NM 11.21%EV +47.62%E +5.57%K +6.31%G +3.00%	4.3%	2026-05-19 11:00
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 88.37%EV -15.61%E -15.30%K -780.54%G +0.000%	7.75I 12.90%NM 11.63%EV +33.81%E +4.36%K +5.01%G +1.69%	10.9%	2026-05-19 11:00
PlayUp🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -9.82%E -9.01%K -109.10%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +29.49%E +3.93%K +4.54%G +1.34%	5.1%	2026-05-19 11:00
Marathon Bet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -7.34%E -6.55%K -61.14%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -3.31%E -0.592%K -0.720%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-19 11:05
NordicBet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 81.99%EV -7.34%E -6.55%K -61.14%G +0.000%	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -11.95%E -2.34%K -2.91%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-05-19 11:10
BoyleSports🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.68%E -4.98%K -40.59%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -13.67%E -2.73%K -3.42%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-05-19 11:10
theScore Bet🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -4.03%E -3.47%K -25.17%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -17.13%E -3.57%K -4.51%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-19 11:10
Betsson🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -4.86%E -4.22%K -32.37%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -20.58%E -4.47%K -5.72%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-05-19 11:10
Fliff🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 79.14%EV -4.03%E -3.47%K -25.17%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -24.03%E -5.46%K -7.07%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-05-19 11:10
Betway🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.27%EV -2.37%E -2.01%K -13.18%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -26.62%E -6.26%K -8.19%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-05-19 11:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.07I 93.46%NM 90.16%	9.80I 10.20%NM 9.84%	3.7%	2026-05-19 11:05
Novig◎	1.13I 88.50%NM 56.87%	1.49I 67.11%NM 43.13%	55.6%	2026-05-19 11:10