The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Alejandro Moro Canas v Stefano Napolitano

Kickoff: 2026-05-18 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alejandro Moro Canas (Local)

Prediction 53.96%1.85fair odd
EV -0.182%
Edge -0.098%
Kelly -0.214%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.32%53.98%54.23%55.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.731.711.8560.61%57.97%58.31%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Stefano Napolitano (Visit)

Prediction 46.04%2.17fair odd
EV -4.69%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -4.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.59%46.02%45.77%48.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.002.022.0752.63%49.94%49.38%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alejandro Moro Canas (Local): 53.96%; Stefano Napolitano (Visit): 46.04%. For Alejandro Moro Canas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.853. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.850, with an expected value of -0.182%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -0.182%E -0.098%K -0.214%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -10.21%E -5.24%K -10.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-18 16:05
Pinnacle🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -2.88%E -1.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -4.69%E -2.26%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-18 16:05
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.58%E -3.19%K -7.44%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.21%E -5.24%K -10.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-18 16:25
MyBookie.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.23%EV -6.12%E -3.52%K -8.27%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.77%EV -8.83%E -4.46%K -9.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-18 16:05
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.66%E -3.85%K -9.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.61%E -2.74%K -5.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-18 16:31
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%EV -7.20%E -4.18%K -9.99%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.50%EV -5.15%E -2.50%K -4.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-18 16:17
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -7.74%E -4.52%K -10.90%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -5.61%E -2.74%K -5.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-18 16:31
Unibet (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.63%EV -7.74%E -4.52%K -10.90%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.37%EV -12.52%E -6.59%K -13.91%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-18 16:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -8.28%E -4.87%K -11.82%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.96%EV -11.59%E -6.04%K -12.60%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-18 16:05
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%EV -8.81%E -5.22%K -12.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.80%EV -7.91%E -3.96%K -7.91%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-18 16:30
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -10.97%E -6.65%K -16.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -5.61%E -2.74%K -5.34%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-18 16:25
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -10.97%E -6.65%K -16.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -5.61%E -2.74%K -5.34%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-18 16:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.