Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pablo Carreno Busta v Luca Nardi

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

48%

52%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pablo Carreno Busta (Local)

Prediction 48.48%2.06fair odd

EV +9.07%

Edge +4.03%

Kelly +7.26%

Growth +0.659%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.31%47.37%48.54%52.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.801.971.952.2555.56%50.68%51.28%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luca Nardi (Visit)

Prediction 51.52%1.94fair odd

EV +3.56%

Edge +1.77%

Kelly +3.53%

Growth +0.126%

assuming max odds 2.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.38%52.63%51.46%57.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.651.801.812.0160.61%55.50%55.10%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pablo Carreno Busta (Local): 48.48%; Luca Nardi (Visit): 51.52%. For Pablo Carreno Busta (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.06. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Betway🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV +9.07%E +4.03%K +7.26%G +0.659%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -14.99%E -9.08%K -23.06%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-02-22 09:39
Coral🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV +4.23%E +1.97%K +3.67%G +0.155%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -14.99%E -9.08%K -23.06%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-02-22 09:40
Bovada🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV +1.80%E +0.858%K +1.64%G +0.030%	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -8.80%E -4.97%K -11.43%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-02-22 09:39
Bet Victor🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV +1.80%E +0.858%K +1.64%G +0.030%	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -12.41%E -7.30%K -17.73%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-02-22 09:38
Pinnacle🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 48.83%EV -4.50%E -2.28%K -4.64%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 51.17%EV -3.14%E -1.67%K -3.57%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-02-22 09:30
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.50%E -2.28%K -4.64%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.68%E -2.53%K -5.51%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-02-22 09:26
LowVig.ag🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.50%E -2.28%K -4.64%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.68%E -2.53%K -5.51%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-02-22 09:26
theScore Bet🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.26%E -4.03%K -9.07%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-02-22 09:35
Fliff🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -11.90%E -6.96%K -16.76%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-02-22 09:35
PlayUp🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -6.44%E -3.34%K -6.92%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -4.68%E -2.53%K -5.51%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-02-22 09:28
BoyleSports🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.41%E -3.88%K -8.14%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.71%E -3.12%K -6.88%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-02-22 09:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.41%E -3.88%K -8.14%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.26%E -4.03%K -9.07%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-02-22 09:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -7.89%E -4.15%K -8.77%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -5.71%E -3.12%K -6.88%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-02-22 09:40
Betsson🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -7.89%E -4.15%K -8.77%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.26%E -4.03%K -9.07%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-02-22 09:39
GTbets🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -12.26%E -6.77%K -15.13%G +0.000%	2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV +3.56%E +1.77%K +3.53%G +0.126%	5.0%	2026-02-22 09:24
NordicBet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -12.74%E -7.08%K -15.93%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -4.68%E -2.53%K -5.51%G +0.000%	9.6%	2026-02-22 09:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.