Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard v Jan Choinski

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 07:14 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

66%

34%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (Local)

Prediction 66.50%1.50fair odd

EV +0.409%

Edge +0.271%

Kelly +0.803%

Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

61.54%66.48%66.27%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.361.421.421.5173.53%70.31%70.67%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jan Choinski (Visit)

Prediction 33.50%2.98fair odd

EV +0.511%

Edge +0.170%

Kelly +0.256%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.19%33.52%33.73%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.402.782.753.0041.67%36.02%36.36%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (Local): 66.50%; Jan Choinski (Visit): 33.50%. For Jan Choinski (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.98. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.511%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.88%EV +0.409%E +0.271%K +0.803%G +0.003%	2.67I 37.45%NM 36.12%EV -10.54%E -3.95%K -6.31%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-02-22 07:10
Everygame🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -0.256%E -0.170%K -0.511%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -19.59%E -8.16%K -13.99%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-02-22 06:59
Bovada🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -1.59%E -1.07%K -3.30%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -9.54%E -3.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-02-22 07:09
GTbets🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.56%EV -3.58%E -2.47%K -7.96%G +0.000%	2.76I 36.23%NM 34.44%EV -7.53%E -2.73%K -4.28%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-02-22 06:59
Betway🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.58%E -2.47%K -7.96%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.86%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-02-22 07:10
Coral🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.65%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.54%E -3.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-02-22 07:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.65%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -9.54%E -3.53%K -5.61%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-02-22 07:10
Marathon Bet🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.34%EV -4.91%E -3.43%K -11.42%G +0.000%	2.58I 38.76%NM 35.66%EV -13.56%E -5.26%K -8.58%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-02-22 07:02
Betsson🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -5.58%E -3.93%K -13.27%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -12.89%E -4.96%K -8.06%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-02-22 07:10
LowVig.ag🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV -6.24%E -4.43%K -15.22%G +0.000%	2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -0.159%E -0.053%K -0.080%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-02-22 07:10
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV -6.24%E -4.43%K -15.22%G +0.000%	2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -0.159%E -0.053%K -0.080%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-02-22 07:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.91%E -4.93%K -17.26%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +0.511%E +0.170%K +0.256%G +0.001%	4.8%	2026-02-22 07:10
PlayUp🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.91%E -4.93%K -17.26%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.84%E -0.979%K -1.49%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-02-22 07:08
BoyleSports🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.91%E -4.93%K -17.26%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.86%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-02-22 07:10
NordicBet🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 66.75%EV -8.90%E -6.50%K -24.05%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.86%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-02-22 07:09
Fliff🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 66.75%EV -8.90%E -6.50%K -24.05%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -7.86%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-02-22 07:10
Bet Victor🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.57%E -7.03%K -26.57%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +0.511%E +0.170%K +0.256%G +0.001%	6.9%	2026-02-22 07:09
theScore Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.57%E -7.03%K -26.57%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +0.511%E +0.170%K +0.256%G +0.001%	6.9%	2026-02-22 07:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.