Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Trevor Svajda v Michael Zheng

Kickoff: 2026-08-13 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Trevor Svajda (Local)

Prediction 30.31%3.30fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -0.940%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.67%30.50%30.36%32.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.073.093.2034.72%32.61%32.36%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michael Zheng (Visit)

Prediction 69.69%1.43fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -2.77%
Kelly -10.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.92%69.50%69.64%70.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.361.361.3875.19%73.48%73.53%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Trevor Svajda (Local): 30.31%; Michael Zheng (Visit): 69.69%. For Trevor Svajda (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -3.01%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.01%E -0.940%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.92%E -4.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 21:14
Pinnacle🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 30.33%EV -3.92%E -1.24%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.67%EV -3.83%E -2.77%K -10.07%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-12 22:55
LowVig.ag🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.40%EV -4.22%E -1.34%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.60%EV -3.83%E -2.77%K -10.07%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-12 21:19
BetOnline.ag🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.40%EV -4.22%E -1.34%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.60%EV -3.83%E -2.77%K -10.07%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-12 21:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.04%E -1.95%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.22%E -3.84%K -14.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-12 08:04
theScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.04%E -1.95%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.31%E -5.50%K -22.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-12 21:15
GTbets🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.47%EV -6.64%E -2.16%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.53%EV -5.92%E -4.38%K -16.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-12 08:04
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -9.07%E -3.02%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.83%E -2.77%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-13 00:40
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.07%E -3.02%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.22%E -3.84%K -14.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 11:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.07%E -3.02%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.22%E -3.84%K -14.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 11:04
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -10.58%E -3.59%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.76%EV -6.62%E -4.94%K -19.46%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 21:20
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -12.71%E -4.41%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -5.22%E -3.84%K -14.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-12 15:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX3.20I 31.25%NM 30.59%1.41I 70.92%NM 69.41%2.2%2026-08-13 00:55