Idioma:Español
Tomas Machac v Pablo Carreno Busta
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Tomas Machac (Local)
Predicción 48.15%2.08momio equitativo
EV -1.78%
Ventaja -0.871%
Kelly -1.71%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.04
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.37%48.34%48.12%51.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.831.941.952.0454.64%51.64%51.28%49.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Pablo Carreno Busta (Visitante)
Predicción 51.85%1.93momio equitativo
EV +1.11%
Ventaja +0.570%
Kelly +1.17%
Crecimiento +0.013%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.68%51.66%51.88%52.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.801.851.841.9555.56%53.91%54.35%51.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Tomas Machac (Local): 48.15%; Pablo Carreno Busta (Visitante): 51.85%. Para Pablo Carreno Busta (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 1.93. 14 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 1.95, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.11%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (62 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -9.96%E -5.33%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV +1.11%E +0.570%K +1.17%G +0.013% | 4.8% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -10.93%E -5.91%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV +1.11%E +0.570%K +1.17%G +0.013% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 15:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -9.96%E -5.33%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV +0.592%E +0.305%K +0.630%G +0.004% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -9.96%E -5.33%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV +0.592%E +0.305%K +0.630%G +0.004% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -9.96%E -5.33%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV +0.074%E +0.038%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -9.96%E -5.33%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV +0.074%E +0.038%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -9.96%E -5.33%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV +0.074%E +0.038%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -9.96%E -5.33%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV +0.074%E +0.038%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -9.96%E -5.33%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV +0.074%E +0.038%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -9.96%E -5.33%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV +0.074%E +0.038%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -9.96%E -5.33%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV +0.074%E +0.038%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -9.96%E -5.33%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV +0.074%E +0.038%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -9.96%E -5.33%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV +0.074%E +0.038%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -10.93%E -5.91%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV +0.074%E +0.038%K +0.079%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-14 16:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -8.52%E -4.48%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -0.963%E -0.504%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 11:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.72%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.28%EV -1.48%E -0.780%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-08-14 15:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%EV -11.89%E -6.50%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%EV -2.00%E -1.06%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-14 16:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -6.59%E -3.40%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -2.52%E -1.34%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-14 15:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -7.07%E -3.67%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -2.52%E -1.34%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 13:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -7.56%E -3.94%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -2.52%E -1.34%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 15:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -8.04%E -4.21%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -2.52%E -1.34%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 12:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -8.04%E -4.21%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -2.52%E -1.34%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 12:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -8.04%E -4.21%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -2.52%E -1.34%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-14 12:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%EV -2.74%E -1.36%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%EV -3.04%E -1.62%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-14 15:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.19%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.81%EV -3.56%E -1.91%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-14 13:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -4.67%E -2.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -3.56%E -1.91%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-14 13:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%EV -1.78%E -0.871%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%EV -4.07%E -2.20%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-14 15:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.11%E -3.13%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.07%E -2.20%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 15:44 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -10.93%E -5.91%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -4.07%E -2.20%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-14 11:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.04%EV -4.18%E -2.10%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.96%EV -4.59%E -2.50%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 13:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.04%EV -4.18%E -2.10%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.96%EV -4.59%E -2.50%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 13:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -4.67%E -2.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -4.59%E -2.50%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-14 13:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -4.67%E -2.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -4.59%E -2.50%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-14 13:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -4.67%E -2.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -4.59%E -2.50%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-14 13:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -4.67%E -2.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -4.59%E -2.50%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-14 13:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.11%E -2.79%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 13:24 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.11%E -2.79%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 15:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.11%E -2.79%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 15:43 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.11%E -2.79%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 13:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.04%E -4.21%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.11%E -2.79%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-14 15:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -5.15%E -2.61%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -6.15%E -3.40%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 15:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 15:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 14:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 15:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 15:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 13:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.70%E -1.85%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-14 15:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -4.67%E -2.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-14 15:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -5.63%E -2.87%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 15:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -5.63%E -2.87%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-14 15:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.11%E -3.13%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-14 13:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.11%E -3.13%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-14 15:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.11%E -3.13%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-14 15:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.11%E -3.13%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-14 15:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.11%E -3.13%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-14 15:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.11%E -3.13%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.04%E -4.21%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-14 16:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.04%E -4.21%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-14 13:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.04%E -4.21%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-14 15:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.04%E -4.21%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-14 13:24 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.04%E -4.21%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-14 13:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.04%E -4.21%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.67%E -3.70%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-14 15:44 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.07I 48.31%NM 48.25% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.75% | 0.1% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76% | 0.6% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76% | 0.6% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76% | 0.6% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76% | 0.6% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Novig◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02% | 1.2% | 2026-08-14 16:15 |