Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Quentin Halys v Soonwoo Kwon

Kickoff: 2026-08-11 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

56%

44%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Quentin Halys (Local)

Prediction 56.43%1.77fair odd

EV +4.40%

Edge +2.38%

Kelly +5.18%

Growth +0.228%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

51.32%55.80%56.28%58.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.601.671.671.8562.50%59.83%59.88%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Soonwoo Kwon (Visit)

Prediction 43.57%2.30fair odd

EV +1.07%

Edge +0.462%

Kelly +0.811%

Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

41.12%44.20%43.72%48.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.952.162.152.3251.28%46.28%46.51%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Quentin Halys (Local): 56.43%; Soonwoo Kwon (Visit): 43.57%. For Quentin Halys (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Betway🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +4.40%E +2.38%K +5.18%G +0.228%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -15.05%E -7.72%K -15.84%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-11 18:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.62%E -2.74%K -6.70%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-08-11 18:59
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -5.19%E -3.09%K -7.63%G +0.000%	2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -1.11%E -0.488%K -0.872%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-08-11 17:59
LowVig.ag🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -5.19%E -3.09%K -7.63%G +0.000%	2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -1.11%E -0.488%K -0.872%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-08-11 18:00
Pinnacle🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -5.75%E -3.45%K -8.59%G +0.000%	2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV -0.672%E -0.295%K -0.525%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-08-11 18:55
BoyleSports🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.75%E -3.45%K -8.59%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.51%E -4.05%K -7.74%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-11 18:59
Fliff🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -5.75%E -3.45%K -8.59%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%EV -12.87%E -6.43%K -12.87%G +0.000%	9.9%	2026-08-11 18:59
PlayUp🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.88%E -4.17%K -10.59%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.16%E -1.89%K -3.46%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-08-11 18:50
Coral🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.88%E -4.17%K -10.59%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-11 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.88%E -4.17%K -10.59%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-11 18:50
theScore Bet🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.88%E -4.17%K -10.59%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-11 18:50
GTbets🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -8.58%E -5.29%K -13.83%G +0.000%	2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV +1.07%E +0.462%K +0.811%G +0.009%	4.8%	2026-08-11 18:44
NordicBet🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -9.70%E -6.07%K -16.17%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -8.51%E -4.05%K -7.74%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-08-11 18:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
ProphetX◎	1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%	2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%	0.5%	2026-08-11 18:55