Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nicolas Mejia v Jacob Fearnley

2026-08-11 20:30 UTC — ATP Cincinnati Open

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

25%

75%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nicolas Mejia (Local)

Prediction 25.45%3.93fair odd

EV +1.81%

Edge +0.453%

Kelly +0.604%

Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

23.81%25.36%25.93%27.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.453.713.724.0028.99%26.92%26.88%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jacob Fearnley (Visit)

Prediction 74.55%1.34fair odd

EV -1.60%

Edge -1.21%

Kelly -4.99%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

72.63%74.64%74.07%76.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.251.271.261.3280.00%78.84%79.37%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Nicolas Mejia (Local): 25.45%; Jacob Fearnley (Visit): 74.55%. For Nicolas Mejia (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.93. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.00, producing a positive expected value of +1.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Betway🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +1.81%E +0.453%K +0.604%G +0.011%	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.82%E -5.45%K -27.27%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-11 11:04
Pinnacle🎯	3.97I 25.19%NM 24.09%EV +1.05%E +0.264%K +0.353%G +0.004%	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.91%EV -6.07%E -4.82%K -23.35%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-08-11 13:10
BetOnline.ag🎯	3.87I 25.84%NM 24.85%EV -1.50%E -0.387%K -0.521%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 75.15%EV -4.58%E -3.58%K -16.36%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-11 12:29
LowVig.ag🎯	3.87I 25.84%NM 24.85%EV -1.50%E -0.387%K -0.521%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 75.15%EV -4.58%E -3.58%K -16.36%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-11 12:29
Coral🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -3.28%E -0.863%K -1.17%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.82%E -5.45%K -27.27%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-08-11 11:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -3.28%E -0.863%K -1.17%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.82%E -5.45%K -27.27%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-08-11 11:04
GTbets🎯	3.64I 27.47%NM 26.61%EV -7.35%E -2.02%K -2.78%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 73.39%EV -1.60%E -1.21%K -4.99%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-08-11 10:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -8.37%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.33%E -4.19%K -19.72%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-11 10:55
theScore Bet🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.37%E -2.32%K -3.22%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.07%E -4.82%K -23.35%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-11 10:54
BoyleSports🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.91%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.82%E -5.45%K -27.27%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-08-11 10:59
Marathon Bet🎯	3.48I 28.74%NM 26.43%EV -11.42%E -3.28%K -4.61%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.57%EV -6.82%E -5.45%K -27.27%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-11 13:18
PlayUp🎯	3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -12.19%E -3.53%K -4.97%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.09%E -2.38%K -10.30%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-08-11 11:44

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
ProphetX◎	4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07%	1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93%	1.3%	2026-08-11 12:45

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