Language:English
Nicolas Mejia v Jacob Fearnley
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nicolas Mejia (Local)
assuming max odds 3.52
Jacob Fearnley (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.33
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nicolas Mejia (Local): 27.42%; Jacob Fearnley (Visit): 72.58%. For Jacob Fearnley (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.33, with an expected value of -3.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.27%EV -3.50%E -0.994%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.73%EV -4.19%E -3.17%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-12 16:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.27%EV -3.50%E -0.994%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.73%EV -4.19%E -3.17%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-12 16:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.05%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.64%E -4.34%K -18.80%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-12 05:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.71%EV -4.87%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.29%EV -3.46%E -2.60%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-12 17:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.56%EV -4.87%E -1.40%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.44%EV -4.19%E -3.17%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-12 21:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.42%E -1.57%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.64%E -4.34%K -18.80%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-12 22:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.37%E -4.93%K -21.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-12 14:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.37%E -4.93%K -21.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-12 22:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.79%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -8.54%E -6.78%K -32.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-12 21:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -8.16%E -2.44%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.67%EV -8.54%E -6.78%K -32.86%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-12 22:41 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.64%E -4.34%K -18.80%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-12 15:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.64%E -4.34%K -18.80%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-12 15:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -9.53%E -2.89%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -7.82%E -6.16%K -28.95%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-12 22:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -10.90%E -3.35%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -5.64%E -4.34%K -18.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-12 21:30 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.60% | 2.8% | 2026-08-12 22:44 |