Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moez Echargui v Michael Zheng

Kickoff: 2026-08-11 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

13%

87%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moez Echargui (Local)

Prediction 12.76%7.84fair odd

EV +2.99%

Edge +0.371%

Kelly +0.423%

Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 8.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

11.89%12.82%12.78%14.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.557.417.508.0715.27%13.50%13.33%12.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michael Zheng (Visit)

Prediction 87.24%1.15fair odd

EV -4.04%

Edge -3.67%

Kelly -40.38%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

85.96%87.18%87.22%88.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.071.081.091.1093.46%92.20%91.74%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Moez Echargui (Local): 12.76%; Michael Zheng (Visit): 87.24%. For Moez Echargui (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.84. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.07, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.99%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	8.07I 12.39%NM 11.90%EV +2.99%E +0.371%K +0.423%G +0.013%	1.09I 91.74%NM 88.10%EV -4.91%E -4.51%K -54.56%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-11 22:30
LowVig.ag🎯	8.07I 12.39%NM 11.90%EV +2.99%E +0.371%K +0.423%G +0.013%	1.09I 91.74%NM 88.10%EV -4.91%E -4.51%K -54.56%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-11 22:30
BoyleSports🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +2.10%E +0.262%K +0.300%G +0.006%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.78%E -5.35%K -72.29%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-11 19:50
Coral🎯	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -4.28%E -0.571%K -0.659%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.91%E -4.51%K -54.56%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-11 14:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -4.28%E -0.571%K -0.659%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.91%E -4.51%K -54.56%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-11 14:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.28%E -0.571%K -0.659%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.78%E -5.35%K -72.29%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-08-11 19:15
Pinnacle🎯	7.44I 13.44%NM 12.78%EV -5.05%E -0.679%K -0.784%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 87.22%EV -4.91%E -4.51%K -54.56%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-08-11 21:30
theScore Bet🎯	7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -7.47%E -1.03%K -1.20%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV -5.78%E -5.35%K -72.29%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-08-11 22:29
Betway🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -10.66%E -1.52%K -1.78%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.04%E -3.67%K -40.38%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-08-11 19:14
NordicBet🎯	6.60I 15.15%NM 13.95%EV -15.77%E -2.39%K -2.82%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 86.05%EV -6.66%E -6.22%K -95.08%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-08-11 22:29
Marathon Bet🎯	6.55I 15.27%NM 14.04%EV -16.41%E -2.51%K -2.96%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 85.96%EV -6.66%E -6.22%K -95.08%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-08-11 21:58

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
ProphetX◎	8.10I 12.35%NM 12.15%	1.12I 89.29%NM 87.85%	1.6%	2026-08-11 21:30